[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting NE to ENE near-gale
to gale winds at night within 90 nm of the coastal city of
Barranquilla, Colombia through Tue night. Sea heights will peak at
10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
Northerly swell has decayed enough to allow combined seas to drop
below 12 ft across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for combined seas of
8 to 11 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast
near the Liberia-Sierra Leone border through 07N20W to the
Equator at 31W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
the Equator to 08N between 10W and 30W. No ITCZ is present north
of the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from central Florida
to near Tampico, Mexico dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted across the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally
strong ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present off the
coast of northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to
pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of
Campeche through Thu. Strengthening surface ridge will cause
fresh with widespread strong return flow to develop across the
western Gulf later tonight through Wed, ahead of the next cold
front. The front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf
Wed afternoon and stall off the Texas and northern Mexico coast
through Thu. It should gradually move eastward and weaken toward
the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about a
Gale Warning.

The Atlantic ridge to the north continues to sustain a relatively
fair trade-wind regime across much of the basin, except near
southern Hispaniola which scattered trade-wind showers are
occurring. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central
basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
are seen at the northwestern basin south of Cuba and near Jamaica.
Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge associated with the Azores High and low pressure over
northern Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds at
the south-central basin through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras
through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night
in the lee of Cuba Tue through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
declining northerly swell at the central Atlantic.

A modest stationary front reaches southwestward from east of
Bermuda across 31N59W to 27N72W, then turns northwestward through
northern Florida. Convergent southerly winds southeast of this
front are causing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 28N
between 57W and 65W. A cold front stretches westward from
northeast of the Canary Islands across 31N15W to 29N29W, then
continues as a stationary front to 29N41W. Patchy clouds and
showers are evident up to 50 nm along either side of this
boundary. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered moderate
convection from the Equator to 04N between 33W and the Brazilian
coast near Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Residual northerly swell is generating seas of 7 to 10 ft from
13N to 25N between 48W and 59W, and 8 to 11 ft from 16N to 31N
between 32W and 48W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
ENE trades are present in this area. Farther west near the
stationary front, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 19N west of 59W. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of
8 to 13 ft in large NW swell dominate north of 18N between the
African coast and 32W. To the southwest, gentle to moderate NE to
ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 02N to 19N/13N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere for the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward
from a 1033 mb Azores High to the Bahamas. This feature will
continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 22N
between 54W and the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and
seas near 9 ft in this region will diminish late Tue as the
Atlantic ridge shifts northward. The stationary front will weaken
further through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will
prevail in the northeast Florida offshore waters north of the
front through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the
Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks/Caicos through
Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to
develop along 55W Wed night and then shift westward through Fri.
This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas
through the end of the week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net