[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between high pressure that is to the north of
the Caribbean Sea, and relatively lower surface pressure that is
in northern Colombia, will support pulsing winds to gale-force
tonight near the coast of Colombia in particular, and fresh to
near gale-force winds in the central sections and in parts of
the SW Caribbean Sea in general, through Thursday night. The sea
heights will range from 10 feet to 12 feet in the areas of the
comparatively fastest wind speeds.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:

Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that in general are 8
feet or higher, are between 20W and 60W to the north of the line
10N60W 12N53W 18N35W 20N26W 20N20W.
The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet from 20N
northward between 30W and 42W. The sea heights will range from 8
feet to 11 feet on Tuesday morning, and they will range from 8
feet to 10 feet on Wednesday morning. A stationary front is
along 31N21W 29N30W 27N40W 26N45W. This event, with a leading-
edge period that ranges from 11 seconds to 15 seconds, will
continue to spread southeastward today. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N northward from
60W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border area
of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N20W, 01N30W, and 01N35W. The
ITCZ continues from 01N35W, to 01N42W, crossing the Equator
along 45W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A warm front passes through N Louisiana, central Mississippi,
southern Alabama, to SW Georgia near the Florida Panhandle.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward between 75W and 85W, including in parts of
Florida and Georgia, and in the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong SE winds are between 87W and 95W. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are from 90W eastward. The sea heights in general
are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet.

Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the
Yucatan Peninsula through Fri. High pressure and fresh to
locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the
western half of the Gulf tonight through Wed, ahead of the next
cold front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed,
and stall across NW and W portions, where it will meander
through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A warning for GALE-FORCE winds is in effect for the offshore
waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section
for more details.

The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet within 390 nm
to the north of the coast of Colombia, in the central one-third
of the area, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere between 70W and
80W. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
eastern one-third of the area, and from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere. Strong to near gale-force NE winds have been within
330 nm to the north of Colombia during the last 12 hours. Fresh
to strong NE winds are elsewhere in the eastern two-thirds of
the area. Moderate to fresh winds are from 80W westward, and in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with
strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands, and low
pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force
winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through
Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-
force tonight and Tue night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras
through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E
Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ongoing significant swell event that is in the central and the
eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean.

Mostly moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are from 22N
northward between 48W and 60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are to the
south of the line 10N60W 12N53W 18N35W 20N26W 20N20W. The sea
heights are reaching 7 feet within 125 nm to the north of Puerto
Rico between 64W and 67W. A cold front passes through 31N64W to
29N77W. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet, and
broad surface anticyclonic moderate or slower wind speeds, are
from 60W westward.

High pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands extends W-SW to
the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward
Passage. Winds and seas to 10 ft in this region will diminish
late Tue as Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the area. A
cold front extending from 31N64W to 28N75W will continue to move
SE and weaken through late Tue. Moderate to fresh winds across
the waters N of 29N in advance and in the wake of this front
will lift N of the area this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds
will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola
and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad
inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night
and shift W through Fri. This feature will enhance winds/seas E
of the Bahamas through the end of the week.

$$ mt/era
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