[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240929
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N15W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 04N40W to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N, between 18W and
22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Light and variable breezes along with slight seas are noted over
the southwest Gulf along a surface trough reaching from the
from the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N93W to near Brownsville,
Texas. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
north of 26N, between the trough and high pressure over the
Carolinas. Gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
elsewhere. No significant weather is evident at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will gradually
shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A
weak cold front associated with the low pressure is expected to
move into the northwest Gulf late tonight into early Fri, stall,
then lift north Fri night while the low pressure moves into the
Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move into the lower
Mississippi Valley through Sat, while an attendant cold front
moves into the western Gulf. The front will weaken as it moves
through the southeast Gulf by late Sun, while high pressure builds
over the northern Gulf behind the front through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Regional radar imagery shows clusters of showers moving westward
in the trade wind flow across the Leeward and ABC Islands,
associated with an upper low centered over the far southeast
Caribbean. A surface trough from the Isle of Youth to eastern
Honduras is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms west of the trough off central Honduras and south of
18N. Light breezes and slight seas are noted over the northwest
Caribbean and south of 10N to the coast of Panama. Moderate E trade
winds and moderate seas are evident across the remainder of
the basin, with fresh E winds south of Hispaniola off Cabo Beata.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region and lower
pressure over the southwest Caribbean will support moderate to
fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola
through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 28N70W then stationary
to 28N80W. Strong SW winds and seas to 7 ft are noted north of 30N
east of the front to 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate
wave heights are noted elsewhere north of 22N and west of 60W.
Elsewhere east of 60W, moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8
ft seas in mixed E and NW swell are evident south of 22N, with
gentle to moderate breezes and 7 to 10 ft seas in NW swell north
of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front become mostly stationary
along 26N tonight, then weaken Fri while it lifts northward ahead
of another cold front moving into the waters off northeast
Florida late Fri. Expect strong to near- gale winds along with
rough seas north of 27N near the front through Sat as the new cold
front reaches from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat.
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through into Sun as
high pressure builds behind the front between northeast Florida
and Bermuda, while the front stalls and weakens along 22N. Looking
ahead, southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida late
Sun ahead of a weak reinforcing front expected to move off the
coast Sun night, and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
Mon night.

$$
Christensen
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