[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240401
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 10N, between
15W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough remains over the western Gulf and runs from the
eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N93W to near Corpus Christi,
Texas. In the north central basin east of the trough, moderate
easterly winds dominate with 4 to 6 ft seas. A smaller fetch
area is only building 2 to 3 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. West
of the trough, winds shift to fresh Northwesterlies with 6 to 8
ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will gradually
shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas.
A weak cold front associated to the low pressure is expected to
move into the northwest Gulf late Thu night into early Fri,
stall, then lift north Fri night ahead of the low pressure
moving into the Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move
into the lower Mississippi Valley through Sat, while an
attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf. The front will
weaken as it moves through the southeast Gulf by late Sun, while
high pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind the front
through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over the far SE Caribbean continues to
generate scattered showers east of 65W. A surface trough in the
NW Caribbean is triggering scattered moderate convection from
15N to 18N, between 80W and 84W. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean with
seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the area will
slacken tonight allowing for winds and seas to diminish across
the basin, except for occasionally fresh east winds south of
Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. A weak cold front
may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend before dissipating
late Sun or Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to
28N73W where it becomes stationary and continues to 31N80W.
North of these boundaries, isolated moderate convection is
embedded in widespread cloudiness. Winds are moderate to fresh
from the east with 5 to 7 ft seas. South of the front to about
22N, winds are gentle with 4 to 6 ft seas. The remainder of the
subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the pressure gradient
between a 1023 mb high centered near 30N36W and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ. While the high-pressure center is
keeping winds gentle north of 25N, 9 to 12 ft NW swell is
propagating into the region between 30W and 50W, originating
from storm force winds in the mid-latitudes. Winds gradually
increase southward, becoming moderate to fresh easterlies
between 05N and 25N. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of
the area through Thu. Expect strong winds and occasionally rough
seas overnight into Thu near the front north of 30N and east of
65W. Another front will move into the waters off northeast
Florida late Fri. Expect strong winds and rough seas north of
27N near the front through Sat as it reaches from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas by early Sat, and from 31N55W to the Florida
Straits by late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region through into Sun as high pressure builds behind the front
between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Southerly winds will
increase off northeast Florida late Sun ahead of a weak
reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night, and
reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.

$$
Flynn
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