[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
06N25W 04N36W 08N45W to 08N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 65W
eastward from 20N southward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a NE-
to-SW oriented inverted trough and cyclonic wind flow from 10N
southward between 50W and 60W, and the same type of pattern from
10N to 20N between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are from 14N southward
between 50W and 65W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
to the Deep South of Texas, and to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 26N to 28N between 89W
and 93W. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are in the rest of the
north central Gulf waters. Gentle wind speeds are in the rest of
the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 85W
westward, and they range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north
of the line that runs from the coast of the Upper Texas Gulf coast
to NW Cuba.

High pressure over the area will shift eastward through Fri as
low pressure develops over Texas. A weak cold front associated
with the low pressure is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
late tonight into early Fri, stall, then lift north Fri night
while the low pressure moves into the Texas coastal plains. The
low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi Valley through
Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf.
The front will weaken as it moves through the southeast Gulf by
late Sun, while high pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind
the front through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface troughs curves from the western parts of the Yucatan
Channel, to just to the east of eastern Honduras, to 11N82W in the
SW part of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong are 15N northward from 81W
westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, in
patches of low level clouds in the tradewind flow. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 6 feet from Jamaica southward from 80W
eastward. The sea heights are 3 feet or less elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and
from Jamaica southward. Light breezes are in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and from 10N southward to the coast of Panama.

High pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the
southwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through early next
week, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N55W to 28N70W. The front is stationary
from 28N70W to 28N80W, and then curving northward beyond 31N80W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are from the front northward
from 70W westward. Strong SW winds, and sea heights that are
reaching 7 feet, are from 28N northward between 48W and 54W
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights are elsewhere
from 22N northward from 60W westward. Moderate to fresh trade
winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in mixed
E and NW swell, are from 22N southward. Gentle to moderate
breezes, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet in NW
swell, are from 22N northward from 60W eastward.

A cold front extends from 31N53W TO 28N68W, then becomes
stationary to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The front will become
mostly stationary along 26N tonight, then weaken Fri while it
lifts northward. Another cold front will move into the waters off
northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to near- gale force winds along
with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front through
Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern
Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Winds and
seas will diminish across the region through into Sun. Southerly
winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun ahead of a
reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This
front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
MT/AL
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