[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nicole is centered near 31.9N 84.5W at
11/0900 UTC or 60 nm SW of Macon Georgia moving NNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Regional radar continues
to show a few showers in the southeast quadrant of the low over
the Florida Big Bend area, but otherwise most of the weather
associated with Nicole is over the Tennessee Valley. Early morning
buoy observations indicate fresh to locally strong W to SW winds
over the far northeast Gulf, where buoys are also reporting up to
7 ft in the offshore waters. Seas off the Florida coast are
beginning to subside with the buoy near Cape Canaveral at 10 ft,
but 12 ft seas still extend in the offshore waters north of the
Bahamas. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf and Atlantic
waters today as Nicole continues to move inland and weaken,
before being absorbed into a large mid- latitude weather system
over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High
Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas coast on Fri night with frequent gusts to gale force
expected off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend
from the Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds
will reach gale force speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These
northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat
afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat
evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis S of 20N
and near 67W, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from S of 10N between 62W and 69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N34W to
07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between
11W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Depression Nicole and an upcoming Gale Warning.

Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are evident across the
Gulf, outside of the strong winds and rough seas over the
northeast Gulf related to Depression Nicole. Seas range 3 to 5 ft
across the central and western Gulf. No significant weather is
evident.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas over the
northeastern Gulf will improve through this afternoon. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening
with frequent gusts to gale force off the South Texas coast. By
Sat morning, the front will stretch from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico
by Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche by Sun morning. Strong winds and moderate to rough seas
will follow the front through Sun. Minimal gale force northerly
winds are also expected in the wake of the front near the Tampico
area on Sat with rough seas. Conditions across the Gulf is
expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves
into the NW Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Depression Nicole over northwest Florida
continue to disrupt the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This is
resulting in light to gentle winds across the western half of the
Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas, with seas up to 4 ft in the Yucatan
Passage. Moderate trade wind flow is across the eastern half of
the basin, being supported by the passage of a tropical wave. Seas
to 3 ft dominate this region.

For the forecast, high pressure will gradually build north of the
area as Nicole moves farther inland over the SE of United States.
Moderate winds will increase over the central Caribbean through
the weekend. Locally fresh winds are expected to develop over the
eastern Caribbean by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Depression Nicole.

West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the
circulation of Tropical Depression Nicole, described in detail in
the Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N27W to 25N45W, where it becomes
stationary and continues to 29N64W. North of this boundary, winds
are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-13 ft seas. South of
the boundary, winds are gentle to moderate from the E to SE with
6-10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, large seas of 12 ft associated with
Nicole will subside off the Florida coast this morning. Farther
east, 12 ft seas associated with a frontal boundary that extends
roughly along 26N will subside Fri night with the weakening front.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a
position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
AReinhart
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