[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nicole is centered over the Florida Panhandle near
30.7N 84.3W at 11/0300 UTC or 20 nm N of Tallahassee Florida
moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Regional radar is showing a few showers in the southeast quadrant
of the low over the Florida Big Bend area, but otherwise most of
the weather associated with Nicole is over the Tennessee Valley. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations
indicate fresh to strong W to NW winds over the far northeast
Gulf, where buoys are also reporting 8 to 10 ft seas offshore.
An outer rainband extends over the Atlantic from the Straits of Florida
to near Charleston, SC. Buoys are showing wave heights of 12 to
19 ft over Atlantic waters west of 70W and north of the Bahamas.
Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf and Atlantic waters as
Nicole continues to move inland and weaken, before being absorbed
into a large mid-latitude weather system over the next couple of
days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas coast on Fri night and extends from Pensacola,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Fresh to near gale
force winds will follow this front, which will reach gale force
speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These northerly winds will
reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat afternoon/early evening.
Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis S of 19N
and near 65W, moving west at around 5 kt. No significant
convection is evident near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N35W to
07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to
08N, between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N to 15N between 47W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Nicole and an upcoming Gale Warning.

Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are evident across the
Gulf, outside of the strong winds and rough seas over the
northeast Gulf related to T.S. Nicole. No significant weather is
evident other than showers and thunderstorms in the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the
northeastern Gulf through this morning. Looking ahead, a cold
front should move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch
from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico by Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay,
FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong winds
and moderate to rough seas will follow the front through Sun.
Minimal gale force northerly winds are also expected in the wake
of the front near the Tampico area by Sat afternoon with rough
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole over northwest Florida
continue to disrupt the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which
typically governs trade wind flow across the Caribbean. As a
result winds are light to gentle and variable across the western
half of the Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate trade wind flow
is across the eastern half of the basin, being supported by the
passage of a tropical wave. Seas to 3 ft dominate this region.

For the forecast, high pressure will gradually build north of the
area as Nicole moves farther inland over the SE of United States.
Moderate winds will increase over the central Caribbean through
the weekend. Locally fresh winds are expected to develop over the
eastern Caribbean by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole.

West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the
circulation of Tropical Storm Nicole, described in detail in the
Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N29W to 26N45W to 27N50W, where it
becomes stationary and continues to 30N72W. North of this
boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-14 ft
seas, higher closer to Nicole. South of the boundary, winds are
gentle to moderate from the E to SE with 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, large seas of 12 ft or greater
associated with Nicole and a frontal boundary that extends roughly
along 27N are forecast to gradually subside today, with seas
dropping below 12 ft by this evening. Looking ahead, a cold front
will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the
Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
Christensen
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