[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nicole is centered near 34.2N 84.3W at
11/0900 UTC or 30 nm N of Atlanta, Georgia moving NNE at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Regional radar shows
most of the weather associated with Nicole is over the Tennessee
and Ohio River Valleys. Buoy observations indicate fresh W to SW
winds over the far northeast Gulf, with seas to 6 ft. Seas off
the Florida coast are subsiding and will soon abate below 12 ft in
the offshore waters. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf
and Atlantic waters today as Nicole continues to move inland and
weaken, before being absorbed into a large mid-latitude weather
system over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High
Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas coast on Fri night with frequent gusts to gale force
expected off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend
from the Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds
will reach gale force speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These
northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat
afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat
evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends along 67W, from
09N to 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 10N to 15N, between 60W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N13W to 07N56W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N, between 25W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Depression Nicole and an upcoming Gale Warning.

The majority of the Gulf is dominated by light to gentle winds,
slight seas, and clear skies, with two exceptions. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds and 4-5 ft seas are noted in the western
Gulf along the Mexican coast. Fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are
abating in the NE Gulf as Tropical Depression Nicole weakens and
clears the area.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nicole is over northern
Georgia this morning moving NNE 20 kt. Strong winds and rough seas
over the northeastern Gulf associated with Nicole will improve
this afternoon. A cold front will move over the northwest Gulf Fri
evening with frequent gusts to gale force off the South Texas
coast behind the front. By Sat morning, the front will stretch
from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico by Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay,
FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong winds
and moderate to high seas will follow the front through Sun.
Minimal gale force northerly winds are also expected in the wake
of the front near the Tampico area on Sat. Conditions across the
Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold
front moves into the NW Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Depression Nicole over Georgia continues
to disrupt the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This is resulting in
light to gentle winds across the western half of the Caribbean.
Seas are generally 1-3 ft, reaching up to 4 ft in the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate trade wind flow is noted across the eastern half
of the basin, being supported by the passage of a tropical wave.
Seas to 5 ft dominate this region, including a northerly swell
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and
moderate trade winds across the eastern basin. High pressure will
gradually build north of the area as Nicole moves N across the
eastern United States through Sat. Moderate winds will increase
over the central Caribbean through the weekend. Locally fresh
winds are expected to develop over the eastern Caribbean by early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Depression Nicole.

West of 75W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the
circulation and outer rainbands of Tropical Depression Nicole,
described in detail in the Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N27W to 25N45W, where it becomes
stationary and continues to 29N64W. North of this boundary, winds
are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-13 ft seas. South of
the boundary, winds are gentle to moderate from the E to NE. Seas
are 6-10 ft in this area as northerly swell propagates southward.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds and high seas offshore
of NE Florida, associated with T.D. Nicole now over northern
Georgia, will subside this afternoon. Farther east, strong E winds
and high seas occurring along and to the N of a stalled frontal
boundary that extends roughly along 27N, will gradually subside
tonight through Sat as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the
Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
Flynn
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