[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Nicole is centered inland near
27.8N 80.7W at 10/0900 UTC or 20 nm NW of Vero Beach Florida
moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Regional radar shows banding from Nicole stretching from South
Florida from Palm Beach to Naples northward to the Florida Big
Bend. Heaviest rain is impacting the Ft. Myers area. Seas are
currently peaking 28 ft right off the Cape Canaveral coast. Seas
are also approaching 12 ft in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12
ft seas are noted N of 24N and W of 55W. Nicole will take a turn
toward the northwest and north- northwest later today and tonight,
followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move
across central Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far
northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then moving across
the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight and on Friday.
Additional weakening is forecast while Nicole moves over land
during the next day or two, and the storm is likely to become a
tropical depression over Georgia tonight or early Friday. Nicole
is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic
United States by Friday night. Dangerous storm surge, surf and
heavy rainfall is expected with this system. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Just to the west of the tropical
storm force winds of Nicole, winds off the extreme Florida
Panhandle coast can expect strong winds with frequent gusts to
gale force. These winds are expected to continue until early Fri
morning. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by
NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml as well as the local
NWS Forecast offices Tallahassee, FL and Mobile, AL for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea, extends
along 63W, south of 19N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are noted south of 13N between
62W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border
of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N20W to 06N36W to 10N46W, where the convergent
flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes near
08N53W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 03N to 12N, between 18W and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Nicole.

Current observations north of Tampa, Florida are showing tropical
storm force winds occurring off the Florida west coast. Strong NE
winds and rough seas encompass the eastern Gulf north of 25N,
east of 87W, on the western periphery of Nicole. Buoys are
reporting 12 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. Moderate N to NE winds
and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Spiraling
outer bands from Nicole is noted across the extreme eastern Gulf,
E of 84W.

For the forecast, Nicole will move to 28.9N 82.8W this afternoon,
inland to 31.2N 84.1W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a
tropical depression near 34.7N 82.6W Fri afternoon, and dissipate
Sat morning. Outside of Nicole, frequent gusts to gale force are
expected over the extreme Florida Panhandle through early Fri
morning. Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the eastern
Gulf through Fri morning, with conditions across the eastern Gulf
improving through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move
over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from the Florida
Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche Sat night, then dissipate
by Sun night. Strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow
the front over the far western Gulf Sat through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole north of the is disrupting
the subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow
across the Caribbean. Several overnight scatterometer satellite
passes showed light and variable winds across most of the basin.
Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show slight seas as well.
The only exception is over the far eastern Caribbean where
moderate E winds are evident associated with the tropical wave
entering the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will produce gentle to
moderate winds across the area over the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole.

West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane
Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N41W to 28N56W where it transitions
to a stationary front and extends to 29N71W. Overnight scatterometer
satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force winds north of
the stationary front. Rough to very rough seas are noted north of
the front as well. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Nicole will move to 28.9N 82.8W
this afternoon, inland to 31.2N 84.1W Fri morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 34.7N 82.6W Fri afternoon,
and dissipate Sat morning. The large seas associated with Nicole
will diminish over the waters W of 70W by Sat morning. For waters
E of 70W, northerly swell is expected to continue through the
weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position
from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
AReinhart
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