[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 26.6N 78.5W at 09/0000 UTC or
20 nm ENE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving W at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm strength onshore flow
is evident north of Jupiter Inlet, as far north as Daytona Beach. Regional
radar is showing a large rainband wrapping around the northwest
semicircle of Nicole, bringing heavy rainfall across much of
Florida from Fort Lauderdale to Cape Canaveral. This is part of a
larger area of moderate convection north of center of Nicole, from
27N to 29N between 75W and 80W. Very rough seas persist north of
Grand Bahama Island and off the coast of east- central Florida,
with maximum seas reaching as high as 29 ft. Rough seas are also
occurring over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, associated with strong
winds on the western periphery of Nicole. A dangerous storm surge
is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions
of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea, extends
along 61W/62W, south of 18N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are noted south of 12N between 57W
and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border
of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N20W to 06N25W to 10N45W, where the convergent
flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes west of
the trough from 09N50W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 08N, between 23W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Nicole, off Florida's east coast.

Strong NE winds and rough seas encompass the eastern Gulf north
of 22N, east of 88W, on the western periphery of Nicole. Moderate
N to NE winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the
basin. A few showers are active over the far northeast Gulf, but
no other significant weather is noted.

For the forecast, Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 27.9N 81.3W Thu morning, inland to 29.7N 83.5W Thu
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
32.6N 83.3W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 36.5N
80.5W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Nicole will bring
tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf late tonight
through Thu. Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the
eastern Gulf through Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish
through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the
northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from the Florida Panhandle
to the western Bay of Campeche Sat night, then dissipate by Sun
night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over the
far western Gulf Sat through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Hurricane Nicole north of the is disrupting the
subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow across
the Caribbean. Several recent scatterometer satellite passes show
light and variable winds across most of the basin. Concurrent
altimeter satellite passes show slight seas as well. The only
exception is over the far eastern Caribbean where moderate E winds
are evident associated with the tropical wave entering the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to lead
to gentle to moderate winds across the area through the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Hurricane Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of
70W and north of 25N.

East of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane
Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above.

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 29N60W where it transitions to
a stationary front and extends to 29N70W. A scatterometer
satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force winds north of
the stationary front. Rough to very rough seas are noted north of
the front as well. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Nicole will move inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.3W Thu morning, inland to 29.7N
83.5W Thu evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 32.6N 83.3W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to
36.5N 80.5W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Large seas
from Nicole will diminish over the NW waters by Sat morning.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by early Mon.

$$
Christensen
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