[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is inland over Florida, centered near 28.2N
82.2W at 10/1500 UTC or 25 nm E of Tampa Florida moving WNW at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Regional radar
shows banding from Nicole stretching from west central Florida
near Tampa Bay, northward into Georgia and SE South Carolina,
including a heavy band moving across the Florida Panhandle. Seas
are currently peaking at 28 ft in the western Atlantic and 12 ft
in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the center is forecast to
briefly emerge over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not
expected to be over water long enough for significant re-
intensification. After landfall in the Florida Panhandle this
evening, Nicole should weaken to a depression within 24 hours
before becoming a post-tropical cyclone. Dangerous storm surge,
surf and heavy rainfall is expected with this system. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Just to the west of the tropical
storm force winds of Nicole, winds off the extreme Florida
Panhandle coast can expect strong winds with frequent gusts to
gale force. These winds are expected to continue until early Fri
morning. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by
NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml as well as the local
NWS Forecast offices Tallahassee, FL and Mobile, AL for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 63W, from 07N to 19N, moving west at
around 5 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed
throughout the eastern Caribbean near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 07N43W,
where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The
ITCZ resumes from 08N54W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 10N, between 17W and 37W. Scattered
moderate convection is also observed from 07N to 13N, between 54W
and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Nicole.

Winds continue to increase in the northeastern Gulf as Nicole
approaches. Buoys are currently reporting strong northerly winds
and 9-12 ft seas east of 87W. Conditions improve further west,
with gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole near 28.2N 82.2W 985 mb
at 10 AM EST moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt. Nicole will move to 29.9N 83.9W this evening, move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.9N 83.8W Fri
morning, inland to 37.3N 80.8W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat
morning. Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the eastern
Gulf through Fri morning, with conditions across the eastern Gulf
improving through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move
over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from the Florida
Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche Sat night, then dissipate
by Sun night. Strong to near gale force winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow the front over the far western Gulf Sat
through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole over Florida is disrupting
the subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow
across the Caribbean. As a result winds are light to gentle across
the Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate trade wind flow is
beginning to re-establish in the far eastern Caribbean, where seas
have built to 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, westerly winds dominate the NW Caribbean due to
the large circulation of tropical cyclone Nicole while gentle to
moderate trades are noted elsewhere. As Nicole moves farther
inland over the SE of United States, winds will veer to the NE and
E over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole.

West of 74W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Tropical
Storm Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section
above.

A cold front extends from 31N35W to 28N56W where it becomes
stationary and continues to 30N74W. North of this boundary, winds
are fresh to strong from the NE with 8-16 ft seas, increasing
westward closer to Nicole. South of the boundary, winds are
gentle to moderate from the E-NE with 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Nicole near 28.2N
82.2W 985 mb at 10 AM EST moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Nicole will move to 29.9N 83.9W this
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
32.9N 83.8W Fri morning, inland to 37.3N 80.8W Fri evening, and
dissipate Sat morning. The large seas associated with Nicole will
diminish over the waters W of 70W by Sat morning. For waters E of
70W, northerly swell is expected to continue through the weekend.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast
Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night.

$$
Flynn
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