[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...

The center of SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE, at 08/0600 UTC, is near
27.3N 71.2W, or about 359 nm/665 km to the ENE of the NW Bahamas.
Nicole is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, 06 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Tropical storm-force winds are within 270 nm from the center in
the NE quadrant; within 270 nm from the center in the SE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Sea heights of 12 feet or
greater are within 480 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 150 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 300 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. higher from 23N to 27N between 62W and 65W. The
maximum sea height is forecast to be 19 feet. The wind speeds are
ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging
from 10 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 61W
and 81W. Expect the wind speeds to be 20 knots or less, and the
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in mixed swell, in the
remainder of the area that is from 21N to 31N between 57W and
76W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 17N northward between 57W and 76W, from the NE Caribbean
Sea into the Atlantic Ocean. Other isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from 73W eastward, and
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W
westward.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, and
the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 32.5N53W, about 700 miles to
the east of Bermuda. This low pressure center is producing winds
near gale-force, and a small area of rainshowers that is far-
removed to the east of the low pressure center. The system is
accelerating northeastward toward cooler waters, while remaining
in a region of strong upper level winds. The chance for
significant development is diminishing quickly. More information
about this system, including gale warnings, is found in High Seas
Forecasts that are issued by the National Weather Service. The
chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can
be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 12N southward, within 300 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, and within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave. The ITCZ
is from 08N to 09N between 53W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 09N20W and 08N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N23W, to 04N29W 05N40W 09N50W. The ITCZ is from 08N to 09N
between 53W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is from 06N to 11N between 17W and 23W, and from 04N southward
between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 15N southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE, which is forecast to affect the eastern
Gulf of Mexico from the end of this week into the weekend.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Gulf of
Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery, from the Jamaica-to-26N92W surface trough, to the
west and southwest. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet
to 4 feet in most areas. The exceptions have been small areas of
5 feet in the central and the southeastern sections. Fresh to
strong NE winds are from 90W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or
slower have been from 90W westward.

A surface trough extends from just to the south of Jamaica,
through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to
4 feet, are from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the Gulf of Mexico.

Subtropical Storm Nicole near 27.0N 71.1W 998 mb at 10 PM EST
moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Nicole will move to 27.4N 72.4W Tue morning, 27.2N 74.5W Tue
evening, 26.7N 76.6W Wed morning, 26.8N 78.8W Wed evening, inland
to 27.5N 81.1W Thu morning, and inland to 28.9N 82.6W Thu evening.
Nicole will move to near 33.1N 80.2W late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE.

A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate NE winds are in the NW corner of the area from 20N from
80W westward, and into the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate wind
speeds or slower are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third. The
sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extends from just to the south of Jamaica,
through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 15N northward from
Hispaniola westward.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.47 in Guadeloupe, and
0.13 in Bermuda. The three-day total for Guadeloupe is at least
two inches.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from the coast of Colombia
near 74W westward, through Panama/Costa Rica westward, into the
Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 16N southward, from 73W westward.

Large northerly swell will persist over Atlantic waters east of
the northern Leewards Islands into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through
late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near
32.5N53W. This low pressure center has a medium chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 50W eastward. A 1019 mb low
pressure center is near 29N39W. A surface trough passes through
the 29N39W low pressure center, to 20N39W, to 09N44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N to 14N between 34W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 20N northward between 34W and 44W.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet, to the north of the
line 14N17W 10N35W 09N50W from 50W eastward. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, to
the south of the 14N17W 09N50W line from 50W eastward. The sea
heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N northward
between 40W and 60W. Fresh NE wind speeds are from 10N to 20N
between 40W and 50W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 10N to
15N between 55W and 60W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are from
15N to 20N between 55W and 60W. The SE wind flow eventually feeds
into the circulation that is around NICOLE. Moderate wind speeds
or slower are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, from 50W eastward,
and away from NICOLE.

Subtropical Storm Nicole near 27.0N 71.1W 998 mb at 10 PM EST
moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Nicole will move to 27.4N 72.4W Tue morning, 27.2N 74.5W Tue
evening, 26.7N 76.6W Wed morning, 26.8N 78.8W Wed evening, inland
to 27.5N 81.1W Thu morning, and inland to 28.9N 82.6W Thu evening.
Nicole will move to near 33.1N 80.2W late Fri.

$$
mt/al
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