[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080936
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Nicole is centered near 27.6N 71.6W at 08/0900
UTC or 350 nm ENE of the Northwestern Bahamas moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the center of
Nicole. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 26N to 32N between 68W and 76W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is also from 20N to 30N between 60W
and 68W. Seas are peaking near 22 ft. Nicole appears to be
beginning its transition to a tropical storm, with the low-level
center now embedded beneath a relatively small but persistent
burst of deep convection. Nicole is forecast to turn westward and
then west-southwestward today and tonight, followed by a
recurvature around the western side of an eastward-moving area of
high pressure Wednesday through Friday. With Nicole starting to
transition to a tropical cyclone, the system is forecast to
gradually intensify the next couple of days as it approaches
Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 54W, from 17N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N
between 51W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to
08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 05N43W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 16W and 25W, and from 04N to 08N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on Subtropical
Storm Nicole.

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. Scattered
moderate showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted over the far eastern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for the far SW Gulf
where gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of
90W, and 2-4 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, Subtropical Storm Nicole will impact the far NE
Gulf of Mexico Wed and Thursday before moving north of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

With Subtropical Storm Nicole over the SW North Atlantic waters,
broad low pressure prevails north of the area. This is resulting
in a loose pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. The weak
gradient is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the
central Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the far eastern
and NW waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the far eastern
and NW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas will persist through late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Subtropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

Elsewhere, farther to the east, a 1019 mb low pressure area is
centered near 28N39W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of
20N and east of 60W, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. South of 20N,
gentle to moderate winds are found east of 50W, with moderate to
fresh winds west of 50W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, Subtropical Storm Nicole near 27.6N
71.6W 995 mb at 4 AM EST moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Nicole will move to 27.6N 73.3W this
afternoon, 27.0N 75.4W Wed morning, 26.9N 77.4W Wed afternoon,
27.6N 79.9W Thu morning, inland to 29.0N 82.2W Thu afternoon, and
inland to 30.9N 83.1W Fri morning.

$$
AL
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