[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest Atlantic:  Subtropical Storm Nicole is centered near
26.6N 70.6W at 07/2100 UTC or 380 nm ENE of the Northwestern
Bahamas moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the southeast
Bahamas northward to 31N between 66W and 72W. Seas are peaking
near 19 ft. Nicole is expected to take a turn toward the west or
west- southwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday and that motion
should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on
Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night.
Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight or Tuesday, with a
faster rate of strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by
Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the
northwestern Bahamas.

Due to its large wind field, impacts created by Nicole will be
felt from the northwest Bahamas northward across Florida to the
Carolinas. These impacts include very rough seas, dangerous storm
surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located
about 700 miles east of Bermuda is producing winds near gale
force, and a small area of showers and thunderstorms far removed
to the east of the low's surface center. The system is
accelerating northeastward toward cooler waters, while remaining
in a region of strong upper-level winds. Consequently, the chance
for significant development is quickly diminishing. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
There is a medium chance for this system to develop into a
tropical cyclone. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by
OPC at www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward,
and moving westward around 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted
from 07N to 12N between 50W and 52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An
ITCZ stretches from the southern Liberia coast near 05N10W to
06N33W to 09N50W, then from 09N52W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 13W
and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 41W and 59W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the coast of Panama and
Colombia, S of 13N between 77W and 83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on Subtropical Storm
Nicole which will affect the eastern Gulf toward the weekend.

A surface trough is generating isolated thunderstorms at the
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are found across the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE winds
and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Subtropical Storm Nicole is near 26.6N 70.6W with
1000 mb at 4 PM EST moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts 50 kt. Nicole will move to 27.3N 71.5W Tue
morning, 27.6N 73.2W Tue afternoon, and reach 27.0N 75.5W Wed
morning. Nicole will be near 26.7N 77.6W Wed afternoon, 27.0N
80.0W Thu morning, and inland to 28.0N 82.3W Thu afternoon.
Nicole will be inland over Georgia Fri afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southerly winds toward Subtropical Storm Nicole east of
the central Bahamas are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the northeastern basin, including Puerto Rico,
the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. A surface
trough stretches from the coast of Haiti to the Yucatan with
showers noted within 50 nm of the feature. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds are present across the eastern and south- central
basin, while northerly winds are seen at the northwestern basin.
Seas in these locations are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds with
1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, large northerly swell will persist over
Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands into Tue.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
will persist through late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on Subtropical
Storm Nicole.

Convergent moderate southerly winds east and southeast of Nicole
are producing scattered moderate convection N of Puerto Rico to
24N between 59W and 66W. Seas range from 8 to 12 ft in this area.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional significant convection in the Atlantic Basin.

West of Nicole, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft
exist north of 25N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At
the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
E trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell are found north
of 09N between the African coast and 59W/Lesser Antilles. Light
to gentle southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Subtropical Storm Nicole will move
to 27.0N 70.5W this evening, then 27.7N 71.9W Tue morning. Nicole
will be near 27.6N 74.1W Tue evening, 26.9N 76.5W Wed morning,
26.6N 78.7W Wed evening, and 27.3N 81.2W Thu morning. Nicole will
change little in intensity as it moves over Florida early Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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