[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.8N 84.7W at 02/0300 UTC or
110 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 16 ft in the
NE quadrant. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is
observed from 14N to 23N, between 74W and 88W. Lisa is moving
toward the west and this general motion with some decrease in
forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay
Islands of Honduras early Wed, move near Belize late on Wed and
over southeastern Mexico on Thu. Further strengthening is
expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on
Wed as it approaches Belize. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding conditions primarily across Belize into northern
Guatemala, the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas
and the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Swells
generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands and Central America during the next couple of days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Martin is centered near 35.1N 53.4W at 02/0300 UTC
or 590 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated at 19 ft.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is observed from 35N to
37N, between 51W and 55W. Martin is moving toward the east and
anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of
forward speed during the next two days. Martin is expected to
become a hurricane by Wed afternoon or night before transitioning
to a powerful extratropical system on Thu. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, from 07N to
18N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 13N, between 53W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 09N
to 11N, between 12W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along and south of the ITCZ from 03N to 08N, between 25W
and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the western Gulf has been supporting strong
NE winds along the Texas coast for the last 18 hours or so.
Somewhat surprisingly, a buoy 60 nm SSE of Corpus Christi, TX
reported significant wave heights of 11 ft earlier tonight, which
have since abated to 9 ft. Outside of the NW Gulf, the gradient
between high pressure over the SE US and lower pressure in
southern Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate E-NE winds across
the basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a trough situated just offshore the coast of
Texas will continue to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds
through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the
basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu.
Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf
toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front
entering the far W Gulf over the weekend. Looking ahead, the
forecast track of tropical cyclone Lisa brings the system into the
SW Gulf Fri night and Sat as a tropical depression.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Lisa in the NW Caribbean.

Outside of impacts from Lisa, moderate to fresh trades are
observed through the majority of the basin with 4-6 ft seas.
Conditions are more favorable in the SW Caribbean, with light to
gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 16.7N 83.3W 1000 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65
kt. Lisa will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 85.0W Wed
morning, move to 17.2N 87.2W Wed afternoon, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 88.9W Thu morning, inland
to 17.3N 90.4W Thu afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression
near 17.6N 91.9W Fri morning, and inland to 18.4N 93.4W Fri
afternoon. Lisa will change little in intensity as it moves W of
area to near 19.8N 94.2W Sat afternoon. With the exception of
light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Martin.

A surface trough extends from 31N77W to 24N78W. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates the western Atlantic. Winds are light to
gentle, increasing to moderate near and south of the Bahamas. Seas
are generally 4-6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough
extends from 29N51W to 22N56W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with this trough is observed from 24N to 31N, between
48W and 55W. Fresh westerly winds seas in excess of 8 ft
associated with Tropical Storm Martin are reaching as far south as
30N in the west central Atlantic. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from 31N52W to
22N65W will move across the NE waters through Wed. Another cold
front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong easterly winds
across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, Thu night through Sat.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in
the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage
through Thu.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net