[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 17.1N 86.0W at 02/0900 UTC
or 60 nm NE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 21 ft near
the center. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is
observed within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 90 nm SE
quadrant, 150 nm SW quadrant and 180 nm NW quadrant. Additional
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
11N-19N between 74W-80W. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa
will move near or north of the Bay Islands of Honduras this
morning, make landfall in Belize later today, and then cross
northern Guatemala into southeastern Mexico by Thursday. Lisa is
forecast to strengthen to a hurricane during the next several
hours over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to
intensify today as it approaches Belize. Weakening is expected
after the center makes landfall. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala,
the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas and the far
southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Swells generated by
Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
Central America during the next couple of days. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Martin is centered near 35.3N 52.1W at 02/0900 UTC
or 655 nm ENE of Bermuda moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. A turn northeastward and rapid acceleration
are expected during the next couple of days. Martin is expected
to strengthen to a hurricane today before transitioning into a
large and powerful extratropical low on Thursday. Read the High
Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles extends
along 61W, from 07N to 18N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N, between 54W and
63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 11N17W. The ITCZ continues from 11N17W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
04N-09N between 30W-37W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection
is noted elsewhere from 02N-09N between 10W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening surface trough extends along the coast of Texas and NE
Mexico. Some fresh ENE winds are still noted near the coast of
Texas with 5-6 ft seas. Isolated showers are noted from 27N-29N
between 92W-94W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted over the far
southern part of the basin from the Straits of Florida to just
west of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to higher moisture near
Tropical Storm Lisa. Winds in this area are moderate with 3-4 ft
seas. Elsewhere across the Gulf, gentle winds and 2-3 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the trough located along the coast of Texas
will continue to weaken this morning, and the fresh winds in the
Texas coastal waters will diminish to moderate this morning.
Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly
moderate NE to E winds through Thu. Tropical Storm Lisa will make
landfall tonight in Belize as a hurricane, then weaken to a
tropical depression. The depression will then emerge into the Bay
of Campeche Thu night, where it will meander through Sat night,
producing winds up to 30 kt and seas to 9 ft before it weakens to
a remnant low late in the weekend. Southerly return flow is
expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the end of the
work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the far W Gulf
over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For details on Tropical Storm Lisa in the NW Caribbean and on
convection west of 74W in the basin, please refer to the Special
Features section above.

Outside of impacts from Lisa, isolated tstorms are noted near the
coast of Colombia. Scattered showers associated with a tropical
wave are crossing the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades
are observed through the majority of the basin with 5-7 ft seas,
except 6-8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions are more
favorable in the far SW Caribbean, with light to gentle winds and
2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa will strengthen to a
hurricane today before making landfall in Belize tonight, weaken
to a tropical storm near 17.5N 89.6W late tonight, then weaken to
a tropical depression late Thu night inland near 18.2N 93.1W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu.
Looking ahead, a broad low pressure could form over the central
Caribbean over the weekend. Some gradual tropical or subtropical
development is possible after this system crosses the Greater
Antilles and moves into the western Atlantic, and there is a low
chance of formation within the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Martin.

1021 mb high pressure centered near 29N72W dominates the western
Atlantic. Winds are light to gentle, increasing to moderate to
fresh near and south of the Bahamas. Seas are generally 4-6 ft.
In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N51W to
22N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm E of
the trough axis. Fresh westerly winds and seas of 8-9 ft
associated with Tropical Storm Martin are reaching as far south
as 30N in the central Atlantic between 46W-60W. A surface ridge
axis extends from 30N25W to 22N58W to 29N72W. Light to gentle
winds and 4-6 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Fresh trades and
6-7 ft seas are noted farther south, from the ITCZ to 18N between
40W-60W.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from 31N51W to
22N58W will drift E through today. A cold front will reach the N
waters late this afternoon, then extend from 30N55W to 27N66W
early Fri. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will
bring strong to near gale force easterly winds across the N
waters, mainly N of 27N, Thu night through Sat night. Large NE
swell following the front will push southward across the entire
area over the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of
the Windward Passage through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad low
pressure could form in a few days near the Greater Antilles or
over the southwestern Atlantic. Some gradual tropical or
subtropical development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves generally northward to northwestward, and there is
a low chance of formation within the next 5 days. Regardless of
development, this system may produce a very large area of 25-35
kt winds along with very large seas across the basin.

$$
Hagen
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