[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.7N 83.3W at 01/2100 UTC
or 190 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around
16 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 13N to 21N between 80W and 89W including over portions of
Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Lisa is
moving toward the west and this general motion with some decrease
in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the
Bay Islands of Honduras early Wed, move near Belize late on
Wed and over southeastern Mexico on Thu. Further strengthening is
expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on
Wed as it approaches Belize. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding conditions primarily across Belize into northern
Guatemala, the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas
and the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Swells
generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands and Central America during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Martin is centered near 35.4N 54.5W at 01/2100
UTC or 550 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19
ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 75
nm in the southeast semicircle, and within 300 nm in the west
quadrant and 600 nm in the north quadrant of Martin. Martin is
moving toward the east and anticipated to turn toward the
northeast at a faster rate of forward speed during the next two
days. Martin is expected to become a hurricane by Wed afternoon or
night before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on
Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 18N southward to
across Guyana, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is south of 13N between 59W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N25W to
off the coast of Brazil near 01S42W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 08N between 10W
and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the upper Texas coast to around 60
nm offshore then back to the coast near the border with Mexico.
Strong NE winds are noted in the coastal waters west of this
feature per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data as well as from in-
situ observations, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Some isolated
showers and the occasional thunderstorm are occurring offshore
western Cuba through the western Straits of Florida. Mainly fair
weather is noted elsewhere across the basin, along with moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the trough situated just offshore the coast of
Texas will continue to produce fresh to strong NE-E winds through
this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin
producing mainly moderate NE-E winds through Thu. Southerly
return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the
end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the
far W Gulf over the weekend. Looking ahead, the new forecast track
of tropical cyclone Lisa brings the system into the SW Gulf Fri
night or Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Lisa.

A band of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted extending well east of Lisa within 19N78W to 15N73W to
12N73W to 12N76W to 14N76W to 18N80W to 19N78W. Some isolated to
widely scattered showers are occurring elsewhere in the basin.
Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the central
and eastern Caribbean. light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are
in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Lisa will strengthen to a hurricane near
17.0N 85.0W Wed morning, move to 17.2N 87.2W Wed afternoon, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 88.9W Thu
morning, inland to 17.3N 90.4W Thu afternoon, and weaken to a
tropical depression near 17.6N 91.9W Fri morning, and inland to
18.4N 93.4W Fri afternoon. Lisa will change little in intensity as
it moves west of area to near 19.8N 94.2W Sat afternoon. With the
exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Martin.

A surface trough extends from 31N52W to 22N65W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are noted north of 26N within 90 nm ahead of the
trough, with similar winds north of 29N west of the trough to
around 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft in NW-N swell are across the same area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm
ahead of the trough from 23N to 29N. A weak trough extends from
north of the area through 31N77W to near Melbourne, Florida with
isolated showers possible near it. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates the remainder of the waters west of 55W. light to gentle
winds are found under the ridge and outside the Bahamas, with
moderate to fresh winds from north of Hispaniola through the
Bahamas. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in N-NE swell elsewhere west of
55W.

Ridging dominates the waters elsewhere east of 55W, extending from
31N25W to 23N55W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-8 ft are
south of 20N and west of 35W, with similar winds and 4-6 ft seas
north of the ITCZ and east of 35W. Light to gentle winds and seas
around 5 ft in northerly swell are elsewhere under the ridge axis.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from 31N52W to
22N65W will move across the NE waters through Wed. Another cold
front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong easterly winds
across the N waters, mainly north of 27N, Thu night through Sat.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in
the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage
through Thu.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net