[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290447
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 14N and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed S of 08N and between 25W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 12N and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is found
near this feature at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W and
extending to 08N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N17W to 05N27W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 05N33W to 01S35W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N36W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present S of 09N and between 13W to 25W.
Similar convection is found S of 05N and between 31W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, extending from the Big Bend region of Florida to the
Louisiana/Texas border. No significant convection is associated
with this boundary. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen in the Bay of Campeche associated with storm activity that
developed earlier today over coastal Mexico. The rest of the basin
is dominated by a weak 1015 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf
that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate
winds found in the offshore waters of northern Yucatan and the
western Gulf coast. Seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent across the Gulf,
except for 3-4 ft offshore southern Texas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure continues across the
basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over
the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across the eastern Gulf
through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun
night across the NW waters and continue through early next week.
Low pressure may develop over the SW Gulf toward the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds continue to generate scattered showers over
the eastern Caribbean, while similar activity is also observed in
the NW Caribbean, especially off NE Honduras. Dry air dominates
the rest of the basin, supporting fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh
to strong trades in the central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring
offshore Colombia. Gentle to locally fresh trades are found
elsewhere in the basin, along with seas of 2-5 ft.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts
of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week. Moderate to
fresh trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the
Caribbean through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft due to a stationary front over the coast of the
SE United States and a surface trough off NE Florida result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Bahamas
and the waters off NE Florida. The rest of the western tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge between Bermuda and
the Azores. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressures in the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong
E-SE winds off northern Hispaniola and SE Bahamas, mainly south of
23N. Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 24N39W.
Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh NE-E winds behind the
frontal boundary. Northerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft
behind the front. Dry air dominates the rest of the basin,
suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate
to occasionally fresh trades are also noted S of 20N and between
35W and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A
weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by
mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it
lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate
to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through
early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the region through early next week.

$$
Delgado
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