[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W-28W from 14N
southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 00N to 07.5N between 23W and
30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
found near this feature at this time as the wave moves through a
region of middle to upper level subsidence.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits western Africa near 07.5N12W to 06N13W. An
ITCZ extends from near 06N13W to 05N26W, then from 02.5S37W to
00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 07.5N between 12W and 21W, and from 00N to 03.5N
between 30W and 47W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across Panama, much of NW Colombia,
and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area
to 28N90W to near Galveston, Texas at 29.5N94.5W. Scattered
showers and a few weak thunderstorms are found up to 45 nm from
either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs northeastward
from the E central Gulf across central Florida to beyond 31N78W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over central and
southeast Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the central
Gulf is dominating the E Gulf with gentle to moderate SSW to W
winds and 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate southeasterly return flow and
seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail across the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the northern waters
will dissipate Sun. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the
basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over
the W Gulf and light to gentle winds across the E Gulf through
the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night
across the NW waters and continue through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered passing showers
over the E basin, including the Lesser Antilles. Convergent
southeasterly winds behind a tropical wave are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Nicaragua and extending
eastward to 81W. Fresh to locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7
to 9 ft are seen over the south central basin, just north of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas
exist over the central and north central basin. Gentle to moderate
easterly trades and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail off
the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with
seas to 8 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs northeastward from near Cape Canaveral,
Florida to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are present across the Bahamas and offshore of south central and
southeast Florida. To the east, a cold front reaches
southwestward from south of the Azores across 31N29W to 26N34W,
together with two surface troughs to the west near 26N38W and
28N57W; scattered showers are evident north of 23N between 27W and
59W. Farther east, a low to mid- level trough near 29N17W is
triggering scattered showers near the Canary Islands.

The Atlantic ridge is dominating the central basin with gentle to
moderate NE to ESE trades S of 21N and seas of 3 to 6 ft, north
of the Equator between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. The exception
is 5 to 7 ft seas in northerly swell north of 26N between 31W and
50W, and moderate to locally fresh southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas east of the trough offshore of the northern Florida and Georgia
coasts.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the
eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
persist off the NE Florida coast today. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the remainder of the region through early next
week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and
the southern Bahamas through early next week.

$$
Stripling
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