[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 14N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 06N between 22W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N southward, and
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found
near this feature at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends
from near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border to 04N24W, then from
04N26W across EQ33W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between
11W and 22W, and from 01N to 06N between 28W and 35W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across Panama and adjacent Caribbean
waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area to
near 29N85W, then continues as a stationary front to near
Galveston, Texas. Scattered showers are found up to 40 nm from
either side of this boundary. A surface trough run northeastward
from the E central Gulf across central Florida to beyond 31N79W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
central Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the central Gulf
is dominating the E Gulf with gentle to moderate SSW to W winds
and 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate southeasterly return flow and seas at
2 to 4 ft prevail across the W Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the northern waters
will dissipate Sun. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the
basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over
the W Gulf and light to gentle winds across the E Gulf through
the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun night
across the NW waters and continue through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers over the E
basin, including the Lesser Antilles. Convergent southeasterly
winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Nicaragua;
and over southern Cuba and nearby waters. Fresh to locally strong
ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen over the south central
basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades
with 6 to 8 ft seas exist over the central and north central
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail off
the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through early next week with
seas to 8 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs northeastward from near Cape Canaveral,
Florida to beyond 31N at 79W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present across the Bahamas and offshore
from Florida. A cold front reaches southwestward from south of the
Azores across 31N29W to 26N34W, together with two surface troughs
to the west near 26N38W and 28N57W; scattered showers are evident
north of 23N between 27W and 59W. Farther east, a low to mid-
level trough near 29N17W is triggering scattered showers near the
Canary Islands.

The Atlantic ridge is dominating the central basin with gentle to
moderate NE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of the
Equator between 30W and the Less Antilles. The exception is 5 to 7
ft seas in northerly swell north of 26N between 34W and 56W, and
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas off
the northern florida/Georgia coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the
eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
persist off the NE Florida coast today. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the remainder of the region through early next
week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and
the southern Bahamas through early next week.

$$

Chan
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