[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 25W, S
of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 06N, where the wave meets the monsoon
trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, S of
12N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this feature at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N19W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 06N and between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, but this
boundary is surrounded by a dry airmass that supports fairly
tranquil weather conditions across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A
1015 mb high pressure centered over the SE Gulf maintains light
to locally moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with seas
of 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will prevail across the
coast of the Gulf states through Sun. Surface ridging is building
across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevailing over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly
winds will develop across the NW waters Sun night and continue
into early next week due to a pressure gradient building in the
area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed in the SW
Caribbean, within 60 nm of Panama. Elsewhere, divergence aloft is
producing scattered showers over the SE Caribbean, mainly
affecting NE Venezuela and the southern Windward Islands. The rest
of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in
the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore
Colombia and Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the
highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Light to moderate trades
and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge N of the area will
continue to support moderate to fresh trades across most of the
Caribbean through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will
continue pulsing each night off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela through early next week with seas to 8 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A divergent flow aloft over the western Atlantic supports
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of
78W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is noted N of the
Bahamas and W of 75W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to
fresh trades are also present offshore northern Hispaniola and SE
Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic
near 31N30W and continues southwestward to 24N45W. No significant
convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh
NE-E winds are present behind the cold front. Seas in this area
are 4-7 ft.

The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge
positioned between Bermuda and the Azores that supports fairly
tranquil weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic.
In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward as a frontal boundary approaches the
eastern U.S. coastline. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
persist off the NE Florida coast through today. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail across the rest of the region through early
next week. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh over northern
Hispaniola and the Bahamas through early next week.

$$
ERA
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