[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 14N and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 12N and
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N19W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 06N and between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, but
this boundary is surrounded by a dry airmass that supports fairly
tranquil weather conditions across most of the Gulf of Mexico. The
exception is in the eastern Bay of Campeche where afternoon and
evening thunderstorm activity that formed over the Yucatan
peninsula is gradually moving westward into the body of water. A
1015 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf maintains light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with seas of 2-3
ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging is building across the basin, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the area
through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop across
the NW waters Sun night and continue into early next week due to
a pressure gradient building in the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed in the SW
Caribbean Sea, within 60 nm of Panama. Elsewhere, divergence aloft
is producing some scattered showers over the SE Caribbean, mainly
affecting NE Venezuela and the southern Windward Islands. The rest
of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in
the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore
Colombia and Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with the
highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Light to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will continue off
the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough offshore NE Florida and divergence aloft result
in a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of
78W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is noted N of the
Bahamas and W of 75W. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to
fresh trades are also present offshore northern Hispaniola and SE
Bahamas. Farther east, a weak cold front enters the tropical
Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 28N49W. No
significant convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate to
locally fresh NE-E winds are present behind the cold front. Seas
in this area are 4-7 ft.

The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge
positioned between Bermuda and the Azores that supports fairly
tranquil weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic.
In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward as a cold front moves across the
southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh southerly
winds will persist off the NE Florida coast through early Sat.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the
region through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to
fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend
and into early next week.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net