[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W/31W
from 02N to 15W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Small clusters
of scattered moderate convection are noted near the southern part
of the wave from 01N to 04N between 29W-31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of
13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent,
reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W. It
extends from there to 08N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N16W
to 06N22W and to 05N29W. In addition to the tropical wave along
30W/31W, a surface trough analyzed from 05N35W to 01S36W also
interrupts the ITCZ. The ITCZ then resumes at from 01N37W to
02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 17W-26W, and within
180 nm east of the surface trough from 03N to 05N. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05S to 02S and between 29W-32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is analyzed from across northern Florida
reaching the coast near Destin and westward to just southwest of
Biloxi, Mississippi. It continues inland southern Louisiana as a
warm front. No significant convection is associated with this
boundary. Satellite imagery shows plenty of deep moisture
streaming over the southern part of the basin. south of about 21N.
Within this area of deep moisture, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a weak 1015 mb high center that is located over the
eastern Gulf. The high pressure is maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across the Gulf, except for moderate winds found in the offshore
waters of northern Yucatan and the western Gulf coast. These winds
are of the moderate to fresh type speeds. Latest altimeter data
passes along with buoy reports indicate seas of 2-4 ft over the
basin, except for slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft in the
southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche and over the waters of
southwestern Louisiana. Seas of 4-6 ft are over the west-central
Gulf west of 94W.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front will dissipate today.
Otherwise, the weak high pressure will continue across the basin,
with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the
western Gulf and light to gentle winds across the eastern Gulf
through the weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will develop Sun
night across the NW waters and continue through early next week.
Low pressure may develop over the southwestern Gulf toward the end
of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea is providing
enough instability in combination with a very moist low- level
easterly flow to produce scattered scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the southeastern Caribbean. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are over the
northwestern Caribbean from 15N to 20N between 80W-85W. Similar
activity is just inland the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is
occurring within deep moisture that is spreading eastward from
eastern pacific to across the northwestern and north-central
Caribbean Sea. Dry air is generally present over the rest of the
basin, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. Overnight
ASCAT data captured fresh to strong trades in the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the area are 5-8 ft, with
the highest seas occurring offshore Colombia. Gentle to locally
fresh trades are found elsewhere in the basin, along with seas of
3-6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 15N
between 68W-72W and lower seas of 2-4 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela through early next week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean
through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches from along the New England coast
southwestward to just offshore the northeast Florida coast where
a small upper low appears to be forming along the trough. At the
surface, a stationary front is just inland the southeastern U.S.
coast, while a surface trough is offshore Florida along 79W/80W
from 26N to 31N. Upper divergence east of the upper trough along
with the surface trough is resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms to exist from the northwest Bahamas to 31N between
75W and the surface trough. Similar activity extends well
northeast of the area. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic
is dominated by a subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the
Azores. The parent high center of 1027 mb is analyzed north of
the area at 34N47W. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressures in the Caribbean is sustaining fresh
to locally strong east-southeast winds off northern Hispaniola
and the southeastern Bahamas, mainly south of 23N. Seas of 3-6 ft
are found W of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N23W to 25N30W and to
23N38W. Overnight partial ASCAT data indicated fresh northeast to
east winds west of this front to near 45W.  Northerly swell is
producing seas of 6-8 ft behind the front as highlighted in a
recent altimeter data pass. Dry air along with rather stable
conditions are present over the remainder of the area, inhibiting
deep convection from developing. Moderate to occasionally fresh
trades are also noted south of about 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft continue.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak
trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by
mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it
lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate
to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through
early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the region through early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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