[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
160UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the 1200 UTC surface map
with an axis along 12W extending from 01N into West Africa up to
13N.  The system has a well-defined near-surface circulation as
seen in the METEOSAT visible imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 03N east of 18W.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 35W from 00N to
09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The surface and 700 mb signatures
for this system are very weak. No convection is present at this
time with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along near 76W from 17N
southward, moving westward around 10 kt. While there is not a
significant surface signature to this wave, it is weakly
depicted by the Grand Cayman and Santo Domingo 700 mb
rawindsonde observations. The wave is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection south of 11N between 75W
and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near
12N17W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from there to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 03N, east of
18W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough reaches across
Central America and extends from 10N83W to 10N76W over the
Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted south of 11N between 75W and 82W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a squall line extends from the Louisiana coast
southwestward to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Buoy 42002 at
26.1N 93.6W reported 33 kt sustained and gusts of 43 kt out of
the NNW at 1620 UTC. Northwest of the squall line, a 1006 mb
wake low is present at 27N97W. Elsewhere across the Gulf SE
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 NM of a line from
30N91W to 25N95W, while scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 28N between 85W-87W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will prevail today
across the basin as the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico
tightens. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening. A cold front is expected to move
into the western Gulf tonight with moderate to fresh southerly
winds ahead of it as it moves across the basin. The front will
weaken as it reaches the NE Gulf on Fri. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front through Thu
night. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure
ridging settles over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently moving across the south-central Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb Bermuda High and lower
pressure associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon
trough is forcing moderate to fresh E trades across the
Caribbean. Outside of the convection in the SW Caribbean
associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough and the
tropical wave, no other significant convection is occurring
today. Seas are 3-5 ft over the E Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the
central and W Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the
Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela
at night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
currently moving across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1011 mb occluded low north of our waters near 35N47W in
between a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 32N76W and a 1030 mb Azores
High near 40N24W is contributing toward generally gentle to
moderate E trades across the tropical Atlantic. Aside from the
convection associated with the monsoon trough/tropical wave, no
other significant convection is occurring today. Seas are 3-6 ft
across the tropical North Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure ridge extending
from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain in place
through tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu
morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move
across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the
region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to
fresh east winds over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

$$
Landsea
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