[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from 00N to
09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. While the tropical wave amplitude
has waned over the last few days, a recent scatterometer pass
confirmed cyclonic winds at the surface. No convection is present
at this time with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along near 75W from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is producing
scattered thunderstorms over northern Colombia, however no
significant convection is observed over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
00N35W. The ITCZ continues from 00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N-10N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure in the western
Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to
fresh return flow across the basin. Fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas
prevail west of 92W, while moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail east of 92W. Instability across the Gulf is causing
scattered moderate convection E of 88W and N of 25N.

For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will prevail today
across the basin as the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens.
Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula this evening. A cold front is expected to move into the
western Gulf tonight and weaken as it reaches the NE Gulf on Fri.
The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles
over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently moving across the south-central Caribbean.

Moderate high pressure in the western Atlantic is supporting
moderate to fresh trades across the basin. An area of strong winds
is noted in the Gulf of Honduras currently, but it will weaken
during the day. Recent altimeter data is suggesting 4-7 ft seas
across the basin with an area of 6-8 ft likely in the Colombian
Basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean,
pulsing to strong north of Honduras once again tonight. Fresh to
strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently moving across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N74W, leading to
fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Winds are
mainly light to gentle with moderate E-SE winds from the Windward
Passage, across the Bahamas and along the coast of Florida. In the
central Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to
fresh southerlies N of 27N from 35W to 55W. In the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted N of 25N and E of
45W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Sea heights are
moderate or lower throughout the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridge over the western
Atlantic will remain nearly stationary through tonight while
weakening. The high pressure will shift eastward through Fri night
ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S.
The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to
moderate winds to prevail across the region through the period,
except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds over northern
Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

$$
ERA
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