[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 00N to
08N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. While the tropical wave amplitude
has waned over the last few days, a recent scatterometer pass
confirmed cyclonic winds at the surface. Associated convection
remains weak and is detailed in the monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is producing
strong thunderstorms over northern Colombia, however no
significant convection is observed over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
00N35W. The ITCZ continues from 00N35W to 00N50W. Isolated weak
convection covers the majority of the area from the equator to
07N between 10W and 40W, with an embedded area of scattered
moderate convection from 01N to 05N between 15W and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is also observed from 07N to 10N between the
coast of Africa and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and
lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return
flow across the basin. Fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail
west of 90W, while moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail east
of 90W. Instability across the Gulf is causing scattered moderate
convection east of 90W and north of 27N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
prevail tonight in the far western Gulf as the pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over Mexico tightens. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong
near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed evening. Moderate
to fresh SE winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed with
moderate seas. A cold front is expected to move into the western
Gulf Wed night and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the
eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. The front will be followed by
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat
as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate high pressure in the western Atlantic is supporting
mainly moderate to fresh trades across the basin. An area of
strong winds are likely in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Recent
altimeter data is suggesting 4-6 ft seas across the basin with
areas of 6-8 ft likely in the Gulf of Honduras and the Colombian
Basin. A few isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are occurring
across the basin, concentrated mainly in the western half.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to
strong north of Honduras tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong
winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night
starting tonight and continue through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 30N74W, leading to
fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Winds are
mainly light to gentle with moderate E-SE winds from the Windward
Passage, across the Bahamas and along the coast of Florida. In the
central Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to
fresh southerlies north of 27N from 35W to 55W. In the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally strong winds are observed
north of 21N and east of 25W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere.
Sea heights are moderate or lower throughout the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge extending from
near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain nearly stationary
through Wed night while weakening. The high pressure will shift
eastward through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move
across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will
allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the region
through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east
winds from north of Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

$$
Flynn
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