[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 13W extending from 01N into
West Africa to 15N. Associated convection is noted in the
monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W from 00N to 10N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is present at this time with
this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 17N southward,
moving westward around 10 kt. Associated convection is noted in
the monsoon trough section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the West African coast near
12N17W to 04N20W to 02N32W. The ITCZ continues from 02N32W to
02N35W. It resumes west of a tropical wave from 01N39W to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N
between 10W and 20W. The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough
reaches across Central America and extends from 10N83W to 11N75W
over the Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted south of 11N between 75W and 82W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is moving eastward across the northern Gulf ahead
of a cold front pushing off the Texas coast. Ahead of the front,
moderate to locally fresh southerly flow prevails in the central
and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail behind the
front. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue pushing eastward
through the northern basin over the next few days. As the front
reaches the NE Gulf by Friday, the boundary will weaken. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to persist ahead of the front
through this time. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. By the weekend, high
pressure will settle over the basin, bringing quiescent
conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the 1022 mb Bermuda High and lower
pressure associated with the eastern North Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over
the western Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure north of the area
will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the
Caribbean. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight
and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia
and Venezuela at night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Moderate to
locally fresh winds prevail south of 22N and west of 70W, where
the pressure gradient is a little tighter between the subtropical
high north of the area and the monsoon trough in the Caribbean
waters. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere north
of 20N. South of 20N, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the high pressure ridge extending
from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain in place
through tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu
morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move
across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across most of
the region through the period. Winds off the NE Florida coast
will become moderate to fresh ahead of the cold front on Fri and
Fri night. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern
Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

$$
AL
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