[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean with axis
south of 17N and along 65W/66W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This
position corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on
total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted near the wave axis south of 12.5N
between 62W-66W, including over the NE coast of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N21W to 06N23.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23.5W to
03N38W to 02N46W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 03N-09N between 11W-19W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N-06N
between 31W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near
26N91W. Over the northeast Gulf, a surface trough reaches from
near 30N86W to 26N86W. This surface trough is related to a sharp
upper trough extending from northeast Florida to the
south-central Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted off the coast of southeast Louisiana. Isolated showers
and tstorms are near the surface trough. Gentle anticyclonic
winds prevail across most of the basin, due to the weak high
pressure, although moderate southerly winds are occurring over
the far western Gulf, near the coast of Mexico and southern
Texas. Moderate SE winds are over portions of the Bay of
Campeche. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across most of the basin,
except 2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE
winds will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the
high pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh
northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula each
night through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along 83W from the coast of Nicaragua
to western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are active along the surface trough, especially off the coast of
Nicaragua. Fresh trade winds prevail over most of the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Locally
strong trades are noted over the south-central Caribbean, near
the coast of Venezuela. These winds are supported by strong high
pressure over the western Atlantic. Gentle winds cover the
western Caribbean, where seas are 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the
southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week, with
stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia.
Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week
as the ridge strengthens.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and
seas across the basin may increase through late week as this
broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area
strengthens. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall
across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by
late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail over portions of the
western Atlantic in between South Florida and Bermuda, including
over portions of the NW Bahamas, ahead of a mid to upper level
trough currently moving off the Florida coast. The subtropical
ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near 25N42W
westward to 28N65W to 29N75W. The ridge is supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds south of the ridge, specifically south of
22N and west of 55W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Farther north
along the ridge axis, seas are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh trades and 6-8
ft seas cover the tropical Atlantic south of 20N between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. A cold front enters the northern part
of the area of 31N36N to 30N42W to 31N47W. Seas are 6-8 ft in NW
swell in the area of the front. Seas of 6 ft or greater
generally prevail north of 27N between 20W-45W.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the NW Bahamas today as an upper level disturbance
moves off the Florida coast. Meanwhile, a surface ridge along
28N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front
approaching from the north. The front will move over the waters
north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed.
Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola tonight.

$$
Hagen
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