[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean with axis south
of 17N and along 65W/66W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This
position is on the edge of a lower-level area of moisture,
showing up well in layered precipitable water imagery. The wave
is in a unfavorable wind shear environment with no significant
convection noted. Winds associated with this wave are in the 15 to
20 kt range with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range just east of the
Windward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N25W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the Equator at 45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 12W and 15W,
and south of 05N between 30W and 49W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 12W
and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 05N
between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1015 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near
25N93W. Over the northeast Gulf, a surface trough that reaches
from near Apalachicola, Florida to near 26N88W. This surface trough
is related to a sharp upper trough reaching from north-central
Florida to the south-central Gulf. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms are active off the coast of southeast Louisiana, and
near the end of the surface trough at 26N88W. Moderate to
occasionally fresh NW winds are likely off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, with 2 to 4 ft seas. The weak surface pressure
is maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds
will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high
pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast
winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active off
Nicaragua, along a surface trough that extends from the Nicaraguan
coast through western Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass indicates
fresh to strong trade winds over the ABC islands and off the coast
Venezuela. These winds are supported by strong high pressure over
the western Atlantic. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this part of
the Caribbean. The pattern also supports moderate to fresh trade
winds and 5 to 7 ft over the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to support moderate to fresh strong trade winds
across the southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week,
with stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over
northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas
across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low
pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist
onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active about 60 nm off the
coast of northeast Florida, along a surface trough over the same
area and ahead of a mid to upper level trough currently moving off
the Florida coast. The subtropical ridge extends from 1023 mb
high pressure centered near 30N57W westward along 30N. The ridge
is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of the ridge,
specifically south of 22N and west of 55W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass also indicated fresh to strong E winds off the
coast of Hispaniola. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft east of 55W over
open waters. A similar pattern is noted farther east, with a ridge
extending from the high pressure near 30N57W toward the Canary
Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of the
ridge, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh westerly flow is
evident north of the ridge and east of 50W, between the ridge and
a cold front approaching from the north. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW
swell in this area. Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5
ft seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms may
increase northeast of the northern Bahamas today as an upper level
disturbance moves off the Florida coast. Meanwhile, a surface
ridge along 30N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak cold front
approaching from the north. The front will move over the waters
north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed.
Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola tonight.

$$
Christensen
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