[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is across the eastern Caribbean Sea with axis
south of 16N and along 67W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This
position corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on
total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted near the wave axis south of 12N between
63W and 68W, including across much of central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of the Gambia and Senegal near 14N17W to 11N21W to 07N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 04N35W to the coast of Brazil
near 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 08N between 13W and 25W, and from 02N to 07N
between 25W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the far SE Gulf over the Straits of
Florida from across western Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea. High
pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the central Gulf near 24N91W.
The trough that was over the northeast Gulf is no longer well-
defined at the surface. This feature was related to a sharp upper
trough extending from northeast Florida to the south-central
Gulf. Associated convection has diminished over the north-central
and eastern Gulf, however isolated showers and thunderstorms may
still occur through the evening. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across most of the basin due to the weak high pressure, although
moderate southerly winds are occurring over the far western Gulf,
near the coast of Mexico and southern Texas. Seas of 1-3 ft
prevail across the basin, highest in the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds
will increase over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high
pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast
winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along 83W/84W from the eastern Caribbean
coast of Honduras to western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible along the surface trough. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 16N
between 79W and the coast of Nicaragua, with similar activity
elsewhere south of 14N between 75W and the coast of Nicaragua.
Fresh trade winds prevail over most of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, where seas are 5-8 ft. Locally strong trades are
noted over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of NW
Venezuela and offshore Colombia near the Guajira Peninsula.
These winds are supported by strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic. Gentle winds cover the western Caribbean west of
the surface trough, where seas are 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east
and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds
pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas
across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge
strengthens.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and
seas across the basin may increase through late week as this
broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area
strengthens. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall
across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by
late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail over portions of the
western Atlantic in between South Florida and Bermuda, including
over portions of the Bahamas, ahead of a middle-to-upper level
trough currently moving off the Florida coast. The subtropical
ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near 28N52W
westward to 28N70W to 27N80W. The ridge is supporting moderate to
fresh E to SE winds south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N
and west of 55W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Farther north along and
north of the ridge axis, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft prevail. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas cover the tropical
Atlantic south of 21N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A
cold front enters the northern part of the area from 31N30N to
29N40W to 31N47W. Seas are 6-9 ft in NW swell in the area of the
front. Seas of 6 ft or greater generally prevail north of 27N
between 20W and 45W. A ridge also extends east-northeast of the
1023 mb high near 28N52W to the Canary Islands with gentle
anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas in the vicinity.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will prevail over the northern Bahamas through tonight as an
upper level disturbance moves off the Florida coast. Meanwhile, a
surface ridge along 28N will shift east by Tue ahead of a weak
cold front approaching from the north. The front will move over
the waters north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through
late Wed.

$$
Lewitsky
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