[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W-52W from 02N to
13N and is moving westward around 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave
from 00N to 08.5N between 51W and 58W. Precipitable water
products indicate that the majority of moisture with this wave is
E of the wave axis. The wave is forecast to approach the Windward
Islands early Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon
and through Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coastal
border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 10.5N15W, and extends
southwest to 06.5N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ
continues to 03N30W and to 03.5N38W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 01W and 15W,
and near the ITCZ from 01.5N to 06N between 21W and 32W, and from
03.5N to 07N between 34W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1017 mb high pressure center that is analyzed over the N
central Gulf near 27N92W is maintaining rather stable and
tranquil conditions throughout the basin. The wind flow pattern is
characterized by light to gentle anticyclonic blow across the
basin. Seas range 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except 3 to 4 ft W
of 92W. Ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico are producing
some areas of slight to moderate haze across W and SW portions of
the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue
to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the
period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N
and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed
night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather broad and deep layer trough extends across the central
Gulf of Mexico and over the western Caribbean west of 80W. At the
surface, a trough is analyzed from western Cuba near 22N81W to
12N82W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated
strong convection offshore of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica to 80W, while scattered moderate convection is seen S of
12.5N near the coasts of Panama and Colombia.

A morning scatterometer pass measured fresh trades over the
central and eastern Caribbean, east of 74W between the surface
trough and building high pressure in the Atlantic, and are assumed
to continue E of 78W this evening. Elsewhere across the basin,
light to gentle NE to E winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft and
occasionally 9 ft across the central and eastern Caribbean east of
80W, especially within the areas of strongest winds. Elsewhere,
seas are 3 to 5 ft, except for lower wave heights of 2 to 4 ft
north of 19N and west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north
of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter,
mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and
in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. A tropical wave is forecast
to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon, and move across
the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. Moisture
accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for
showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night.
Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop across the western
Caribbean late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low is noted just offshore the southeastern
U.S. and extends across the Bahamas, Cuba and over the western
Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery reveals scattered moderate
isolated strong convection occurring along and E of the mid to
upper-level low, over western parts of the area north of 20N
between 69W-78W, including most of the Bahama Islands.

Further east, a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high
pressure center near 32N60W controls the wind flow pattern
across the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Satellite derived
winds depict generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N
to 22N and SW to W winds north of 30N between 30W to 45W that is
ahead of a weakening cold front that extends from 35N30W to
30N47W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft south of 20N between 35W and
61W and also from 18N to 31N between 61W and 77W. Elsewhere
across the Atlantic, seas range from 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge, anchored by a high
pressure center located over the NE corner of the forecast area
will dominate the region through Mon. Then, the high pressure
will shift eastward through  as a cold front approaches the
waters off NE Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold
front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed
and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the
northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will
precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast
winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon
night.

$$
Stripling
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