[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141643
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49.5W from
01N  to 14N and is moving westward around 15 kt. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate convection along the wave axis
from 40W to 55W between 05N and 10N . The wave is forecast to
approach the Windward Islands early Mon, and move across the
eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coastal
border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, and extends
south to 08N15W then southwestward to 06.5N17, where it
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues to 03N28W and to
02N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted along the ITCZ east of 30W between 01N and 07N, while
scattered moderate convection is observed between 01S and 07N
from 30W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1014 mb high pressure center that is analyzed over the
central  Gulf near 27N92W is maintaining rather stable and
tranquil conditions throughout the basin. The wind flow pattern
is characterized by light to gentle E to SE winds west of 90W,
except for moderate SE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to light NE to E winds are found east of 90W. Seas range
2 to 4 ft  across the basin.

It is possible that hazy skies may be in the west central and SW
Gulf of Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue
to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the
period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N
and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed
night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather broad deep layer trough is situated over the western
Caribbean west of 80W. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from
western Cuba near 22N81W to 12N82W. Satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 110 nm
off the Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia coasts. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also noted east of the surface
trough to 67W, north of 13N with a general northeastward
movement.

A recent scatterometer pass measured moderate to fresh trades
over the central and eastern Caribbean, east of 77W between the
surface trough and building high pressure in the Atlantic.
Elsewhere across the basin, light to gentle NE to E winds
prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft and occasionally 9 ft across the
central and eastern Caribbean east of 80W, especially within the
areas of strongest winds. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft,  except
for lower wave heights of 2 to 4 ft north of 19N and west of
85W, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north
of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter,
mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and
in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. A tropical wave, currently
located near 50W is forecast to approach the Windward Islands
early on Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and
through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to
increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean
through at least Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low is noted just offshore the southeastern
U.S and extends into the western Caribbean Sea. A weak surface
low of 1016 mb is analyzed offshore the North Carolina coast
near 34N78W. Satellite imagery reveals scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection moving in a general northeastward
motion over western part of the area north of 20N between
67W-78W, including most of the  Bahama Islands.

Further east, a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
pressure center near 32N60W controls the wind flow pattern
across the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Satellite derived
winds depict generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N
to 22N and SW to W winds north of 30N between 30W to 45W that is
ahead of a cold front located north of the area. Seas range from
6 to 8 ft south of 20N between 35W to 57W and also from 18N to
31N between 57W to 77W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, seas
range from 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge, anchored by a high
pressure center located over the NE corner of the forecast area
will dominate the region through Mon. Then, the high pressure
will shift eastward through  as a cold front approaches the
waters off NE Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold
front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed
and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the
northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will
precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast
winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon
night.

$$
Nepaul
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