[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, 04N24W,
to 03N30W 01N35W 01N39w. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from
10N southward from 40W eastward, and from 15N southward between
40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico. A north-to-
south oriented surface trough is in Florida from the Florida
Keys to northeastern Florida.

Ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of
slight to moderate haze in the western and southwestern sections
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.
The wave heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 92W westward;
and from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

Gulf of Mexico high pressure will continue to produce a gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow through Wed. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of
fresh to strong winds tonight. Fresh southeast to south return
flow is expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on
Wed night due to a tighter pressure gradient in the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and in much of Central America. A surface trough passes from the
west central Caribbean Sea, through NW Cuba, to NE Florida. The
eastern part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is
along 10N74W, through western Panama and southern Costa Rica,
into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 15N southward from 76W westward. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate
rainshowers, in the remainder of the area that is from 65W
westward.

Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 72W and 76W. Fresh winds are in the rest of the area
that is from 80W eastward. Moderate winds are from 80W westward.
The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet, occasionally at 9
feet, in the central and eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea from
80W eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from
19N northward from 85W westward, including in the Gulf of
Honduras. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the area.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through Sun night. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade
winds are expected in the Colombia basin. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds will be in the Gulf of Venezuela through
Thu night. A tropical wave, just east of the forecast waters
near 56W, is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on
Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea from Mon through
Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to increase the
chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean Sea through at
least Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 66W
westward. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in Florida
from the Florida Keys to northeastern Florida. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are from 65W westward. The wave heights range from
7 feet to 8 feet from 20N to 26N between 68W and 73W.

A dissipating cold front is along 31N35W to 29N49W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 20N northward between
30W and 50W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward from 50W westward, and elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean away from the dissipating cold front.

Fresh winds are: from 03N to 24N from 70W eastward. Moderate
wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet: from 10N to
17N between 30W and 40W; and from 06N to 15N between 40W and
50W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure over the area will change little through Mon. The
high pressure will shift eastward as a cold front approaches the
waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The northern part of the
cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area
Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over
the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
will precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist
through Mon night.

$$
MT/JA
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