[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W, from 12N southward, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from the Equator to 08N between 28W and 34W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N30W. The
ITCZ is analyzed W of a tropical wave from 01S34W to 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between
the African coast and 26W. Similar convection is noted along and
south of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Panama, NW
Colombia coast, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin supporting fair weather.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are noted
over the NE and N central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing in general a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are expected over the eastern Gulf through tonight. At the
same time, fresh to locally strong winds are forecast to the N and
W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southwestern end of a stationary front reaches from the
Windward Passage to south of the Island of Youth. Scattered
showers prevail along the front. Enhanced by a low to mid-level
low near 14N77W, convergent trades are triggering numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms between 67W-77W. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident for the
central and E basin, while gentle to moderate easterly trades with
2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the NW and W central basin. Gentle to
moderate S to WSW monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted
near the Panama and NW Colombia coast.

For the forecast, the ridge from the Atlantic reaches the NE
Caribbean. Low pressure offshore of the SE United States will
drift W and eventually move inland on Fri. The ridge across the
Atlantic to the E of this feature will build westward behind the
low through Fri and act to increase tradewinds to fresh to locally
strong across the Caribbean E of 80W starting Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough centered near 33N72W extends a trough from it to
25N79W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough affecting the
W Atlantic waters mainly W of 72W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
and seas of 8 to 12 ft in N swell dominate waters northwest of
the trough. East of the trough but west of 65W, gentle to
moderate S to SW winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted N of 27N and
W to 68W. To the east, a stationary front curves southwestward
from 31N65W to beyond the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection prevail within 120 nm on either side of the front.
Near the front, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft exist from 20N to beyond 31N, and east to 63W.

For the central and east Atlantic, the Atlantic ridge is promoting
gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5 to 6 ft seas N of 02N
between 30W and 63W/Less Antilles; and N of 10N between the
African coast and 30W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight. The 1009 mb low pres center located ESE and offshore of
Cape Hatteras will move slowly WSW and eventually move inland over
Georgia by Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will
continue to impact the waters N of 28N and W of 70W through Thu
before diminishing. High pressure across the central Atlantic will
build W into the region behind the low through Sat. The pressure
gradient between these two systems will result in an area of fresh
to strong southerly winds roughly N of 22N between 65W and 75W
through Fri.

$$
ERA
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