[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W, from 12N southward, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from the Equator to 08N between 30W and 34W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Sierra Leone
border through 05N20W to 05N29W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 07N between the African coast and 28W. No ITCZ
is present north of the Equator in the Atlantic Basin based on the
latest analysis.

The eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Panama and
NW Colombia coast, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1022 mb high just
north of New Orleans, Louisiana to south of Tampico, Mexico.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are found
near this feature over the NE and N central Gulf. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters for the remainder of the week. This will produce moderate
to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through tonight.
These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche
tonight. Winds will weaken across the Gulf region Thu through Sat
as a high pressure center becomes centered over N portions of the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southwestern end of a stationary front reaches from the
Windward Passage to south of the Island of Youth. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found up to 40 nm along
either side the front. Enhanced by a low to mid-level low near
11N77W, convergent trades are triggering numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms over the S central basin. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident for the
central and E basin, while gentle to moderate easterly trades with
2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the NW and W central basin. Gentle to
moderate S to WSW monsoonal winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are seen
near the Panama and NW Colombia coast.

For the forecast, a surface ridge stretches southwestward from
the central Atlantic to near 22N70W. This pattern will maintain
moderate to fresh trades across the basin E of 78W today. Low
pressure offshore of the SE United States will drift W and
eventually move inland on Fri. The ridge across the Atlantic to
the E of this feature will build westward behind the low through
Fri, causing trade winds to become fresh to locally strong across
the Caribbean E of 75W starting Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from 31N62W to beyond the
Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present
northeast of the Bahamas up to 140 nm northwest, and up to 100 nm
southeast of the front. A surface trough reaches southwestward
from a 1008 mb low west of Bermuda across 31N72W to the NW
Bahamas. Scattered showers are seen from the NW Bahamas northward
to beyond 31N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in N swell dominate
waters northwest of the trough. East of the trough but west of the
front, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are
noted N of 27N and W to 68W. Near the front, fresh to strong SE to
S winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist from 20N to beyond 31N, and
east to 63W.

For the central and east Atlantic, the Atlantic ridge is promoting
gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5 to 6 ft seas N of 02N
between 30W and 63W/Less Antilles; and N of 10N between the
African coast and 30W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight. The 1008 mb low pres is going to move slowly WSW and
eventually move inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds
and large N-NE swell associated with this system will impact
areas W of 70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing. The
surface ridge across the central Atlantic will build W into the
region behind the low through Sat.

$$

Chan
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