[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to
03N23W and 05N30W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough/the ITCZ in the Atlantic Ocean. A 1013 mb low pressure
center is near 02S34W. A surface trough is along 02S31W 02S34W
00N37W 00N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 02N southward between 40W and 50W, and from the
Equator southward between 30W and 40W. Scattered to numerous
strong is from 01N to 03N between 03W and 06W, and inland from
the coast to 06N between 04W and 08W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N90W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico
between 90W and 94W, and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Fresh winds are elsewhere within 200 nm of the coast of Mexico
between 89W and 95W. Fresh winds are in the coastal waters of
the west coast of Florida. Moderate winds cover much of the rest
of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5
feet in the western half of the area. The wave heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet in the southeastern corner, and they range
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NE corner of the area.

It is possible that hazy conditions, that are due to ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico, may be in the west central and SW
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow through the period Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are expected over the eastern Gulf through Thu,
diminishing to gentle Thu night. Fresh to strong winds N to NE
winds will pulse offshore the the Yucatan peninsula tonight and
Thu night, becoming fresh E winds late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the area of the SE Bahamas,
through the Windward Passage, to 19N83W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW
Caribbean Sea, and in much of Central America. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are to the east of the line that runs from
eastern Honduras to the Windward Passage.

The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from the central
sections eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere. Fresh winds are to the north of the stationary front
from 80W westward. Moderate winds or slower are to the south of
the stationary front from 80W westward, and in the SW corner of
the area. Fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate to fresh winds are in the central one-third of the
area.  The exceptions are: within 180 nm to the south of NW
Cuba, within 60 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic, and
in the SW corner of the area from 13N southward from 77W
westward.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure extends southwestward to just north
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Low pressure offshore the
southeastern United States will drift westward, and move inland
on Fri. High pressure will build westward in the wake of the low
through Fri. The associated gradient will increase the trades to
fresh to locally strong across the Caribbean Sea east of 80W
starting Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N65W, to 22N70W, through the
Windward Passage, to 19N83W in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. A surface trough passes through 31N73W to the waters that
are just to the north of the NW Bahamas. Fresh winds are within
150 nm to the east of Florida from 27N northward. Fresh to
strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary
front between 65W and 70W. The wave heights range from 8 feet to
12 feet from 25N northward from 70W westward. The wave heights
range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 25N northward between 65W and
70W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the
remainder of the area that is from 20N northward from 60W
westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 60 nm to the west of the stationary front, and
within 240 nm to the east of the stationary front. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the stationary
front westward and northwestward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 14N northward from 60W eastward.

Mostly fresh to some moderate anticyclonic wind flow, and wave
heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the Atlantic
Ocean, from 30N southward from 60W eastward. The only exception
is some 7 foot wave height values that are from 21N to 24N
between 38W and 45W.

Low pressure of 1009 mb is well north of the forecast waters
about 150 nm east-southeast of Cape Hatteras. The low will drift
westward tonight, then weaken while slowly moving southwestward
inland Georgia on Fri. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds
and large seas are north and northeast of the Bahamas. These
conditions will shift westward through Thu and abate. High
pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward into
the region in the wake of the low through Sat. The pressure
gradient between these two systems will result in an area of
fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N between 65W
and 75W through Fri.

$$
MT/JA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net