[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 02N to 13N.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15kt. The Hovmoller diagram
satellite imagery sequence for the past 5 days reveals that this
wave has a good track history. The latest satellite imagery shows
an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection east of
the wave from 01N to 09N between 11W and 18W. Tropical wave
guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, passing
well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N21W to 00N28W, then along the Equator to 40W
and 50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 27W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front is moving SW across Florida. Behind the
front offshore the Florida Panhandle, moderate E winds are
ongoing, with light to gentle winds across the remainder of the
eastern Gulf. For the western Gulf, moderate to locally fresh SE
winds are present. Seas in the eastern Gulf are generally 1 to 2
ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the west. Hazy conditions due to
ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over
the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in from the north,
bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf
tonight through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over
the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue thru Wed night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions across
the central W and SW Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the
northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin
is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across most of the
Caribbean, except in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N and in the lee
of Cuba, where gentle winds prevail. Seas average 3 to 6 ft,
except 2 to 4 ft where the gentle winds are occurring. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

For the forecast, a surface ridge stretches southwestward from
the central Atlantic to Hispaniola, then westward across Cuba to
the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature will maintain moderate to
fresh trades across the entire basin into tonight. Winds may pulse
to fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1003 mb low pressure is noted near 35N71W. A cold front
associated with this low extends from 31N67W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Ahead of this front, a surface trough is noted from
28N71W through the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the central Bahamas, as well as NE of
the trough, within a roughly 120 nm wide band from 26N69W to
31N62W. Winds behind the cold front are moderate and northerly,
with fresh SW winds ahead of the surface, eastward to around 60W.
Elsewhere N of 20N and W of 60W, winds are gentle. Areas W of the
trough are generally seeing 4 to 6 ft seas, with 1 to 3 ft seas N
in the vicinity of the Bahamas, and 6 to 8 ft seas N of 30N. To
the E of the trough, seas are 3 to 5 ft.

As the aforementioned low lingers in the western Atlantic for the
next several days, this will result in the propagation of
northeast swell through the waters north of and northeast of the
Bahamas and west of 72W, including the waters between the NW
Bahamas and South Florida. Mariners should exercise caution in the
vicinity of the Gulf Stream this week as the swell opposes the
current, creating choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions.

E of 55W, the area is being dominated by broad anticyclonic flow
due to the 1027 mb Azores high. Winds are mainly moderate
throughout this area with seas of 4 to 6 ft. N of 22N and E of
38W, some fresh NE winds are causing seas to reach 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, The cold front will move SE today,
overtaking the aforementioned trough. The front will then stall
tonight from just E of Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos
Islands and into Cuba. Then, through midweek this features will
devolve into a surface trough. Fresh SW winds ahead of the front
will diminish today, but fresh to strong N winds and higher seas
will impact areas W of 70W and N of 28N tonight through Thu.

$$
Konarik
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net