[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 09 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 02N to 13N.
It is moving westward at 10 kt. The Hovmoller diagram satellite
imagery sequence for the past 5 days reveals that this wave has
a good track history. The latest satellite imagery shows an area
of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection east of the
wave from 04N to 08N between 11W and 15W. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave from 00N to 11N between 17W and
22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next
24-48 hours, passing well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N21W to 00N28W, then along the Equator to 40W
and 50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south
of the ITCZ between 27W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals light to gentle
winds over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.
Moderate SE winds were observed in the western Gulf, west of
90W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except in the NW Gulf
where recent buoy observations are reporting 4 ft seas. Hazy
conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may
still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in from the north,
bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf
from Mon night through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong
over the eastern Bay of Campeche from Mon night thru Wed night.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions
across the central W and SW Gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the
northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin
is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the south-central
and southeastern Caribbean Sea, as well as near the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds north of 17N are
mainly SE to S. No significant convection is noted at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will maintain
moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon. A
robust surface trough moving across the Bahamas should allow
winds over the northwest part of the basin to become gentle to
moderate by Mon night, while moderate to fresh trades will
continue for the central and eastern basin into Fri. Fresh winds
may pulse in and near the Gulf of Honduras Mon night and in the
south-central Caribbean Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 mb cut-off low pressure system offshore Cape Hatteras is
creating a disturbed weather pattern in the western Atlantic. A
cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 31N73W
and west from there to Cape Canaveral, FL. A surface trough is
analyzed from near 31N66W to the northern Bahamas. Recent
scatterometer imagery observes fresh NW winds west of the
surface trough with fresh S-SW winds are east of the axis to
60W. The low pressure system and associated front and trough are
underneath a large upper-level trough. Upper dynamics
contributed by this system, in addition to very moist southwest
flow east of the surface trough, are helping to sustain a large
area of numerous and rather vigorous thunderstorms with frequent
lightning. This activity is within 120 nm of a line that
stretches from 31N63W to 23N70W to the northern coast of Cuba.
Currently, seas south of 31N and west of 55W are in the 3 to 6
ft range, confirmed by buoy and altimeter data.

As the aforementioned cut-off low lingers in the western
Atlantic for the next several days, this will result in the
propagation of northeast swell through the waters north of and
northeast of the Bahamas and west of 72W, including the waters
between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. Mariners should exercise
caution in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream this week as the swell
opposes the current, creating choppy seas and hazardous marine
conditions.

East of 55W, the area is under the broad anticyclonic flow
provided by the Azores high and a 1028 mb high that is north of
the area near 34N37W. Gentle to moderate easterly trades are
present over this area with 3 to 5 ft seas, except for moderate
to fresh trades east of 35W. A tighter pressure gradient in the
northeast Atlantic is supporting an area of fresh to strong
northeast winds near the Canary Islands where seas are 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will slowly drift
eastward over the Central/SE Bahamas through Mon, and it should
allow the fresh to strong winds to shift north of 31N late
tonight. Afterward, the aforementioned cold front will sink
further south and bring strong N winds and rough seas off the
Georgia- northern Florida coast through early Thu morning.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net