[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, from the equator
to 13N. It is moving westward at 20 kt. Convection has weakened
steadily over the last 24 hours. The latest satellite imagery
shows an area of scattered moderate convection east of the wave
from the equator to 11N between the coast of Africa and the wave
axis. Convection is weak and isolated west of the wave. Tropical
wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours,
passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N18W to 00N30W, then along the equator to 50W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered
moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary boundary extends across the NE Gulf from the
FL/AL border to 30N85W. Moderate E winds and 2-4 ft seas are
observed north of the boundary with gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas to
the south. The western Gulf is dominated by moderate SE winds and
3-5 ft seas. Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires
over Mexico may still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in from the north,
bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf
tonight through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over
the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue thru Wed night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions across
the central W and SW Gulf today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the
northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin
is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across most of the
Caribbean, except in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N and in the lee
of Cuba, where gentle winds prevail. Seas average 4 to 6 ft,
except 2 to 4 ft within the areas of gentle winds.

For the forecast, the ridge will maintain moderate to fresh
trades across the entire basin into tonight. Low pressure offshore
of the Middle Atlantic states will drift SW and move to offshore
of Florida late Wed through Thu and act to weaken winds to the W
of 75W Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex 1003 mb low pressure system is located near 36N70W.
This system has been cut-off from the jet stream and is slowly
meandering south. A cold front extends from 31N67W to central
Florida with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary. A second, reinforcing cold front extends farther north
from 31N73W to 30N80W. Northerly winds are moderate behind the
first front and fresh to strong behind the second front. Building
seas are currently 8-11 ft west of 70W and north of 29N. A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a surface trough ahead of the first front
which is generating scattered moderate convection from 22N-28N
between 60W-78W. An area of fresh to strong southerly winds is
noted ahead of the cold front north of 27N between 60W and 65W.
Seas in this are are 6-8 ft. Winds are moderate or less across the
remainder of the western Atlantic.

E of 55W, the area is being dominated by broad anticyclonic flow
due to the 1029 mb Azores high. Winds are mainly moderate
throughout this area with seas of 4 to 6 ft. N of 22N and E of
38W, some fresh NE winds are causing seas to reach 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front stretches from Bermuda to
central Florida. This front will move SE today, and merge with a
trough currently over the SE Bahamas. The front will then stall
tonight from just E of Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos
Islands and into Cuba, then weaken to a trough through midweek.
Fresh SW winds east of the front will diminish today. A 1003 mb
low pressure center offshore of Cape Hatteras will move SW to
offshore of central Florida late Wed through Thu and weaken. Fresh
to strong N winds and large N-NE associated with this system will
impact areas W of 70W and N of 28N tonight through Thu.

$$
Flynn
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