[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season is emerging off the W coast
of Africa this morning. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong
convection are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and
Liberia. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward
propagation of this convective activity. Tropical wave guidance
has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S
of the Cabo Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N19W to 01N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 00N to 04N
between 15W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Mississippi
coast. Showers and thunderstorms previously associated with this
front have dissipated overnight, and the remainder of the Gulf of
dominated by high pressure and is convection-free. N of the front,
moderate W to NW winds prevail, with light to gentle winds ahead
of the front in the eastern Gulf. Moderate southerly flow has
developed over the western Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except some 4
ft seas are being observed near the Texas coast.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE today, then move E
of Florida tonight. A surge of fresh NE winds is likely to move
off the FL coast Mon night. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will build in, then shift east, allowing for fresh SE
winds to develop in the western Gulf by Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered NE of the area combined with lower pressure
near the coast of Colombia is leading to moderate to fresh winds
in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are also
pulsing off the coast of Honduras early this morning. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle to light winds in
the far SW Caribbean, S of 11N. Diurnal convection over and near
the Greater Antilles as well as Central America has dissipated
overnight, leaving the basin void of significant precipitation.
Seas average 3 to 5 ft, with some 6 ft seas occurring off the
coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the NE will maintain
moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon night.
Then, a weakening cold front moving across the Bahamas should
allow winds over the NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Tue,
while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and
eastern basin into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to just S of Jacksonville,
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is well ahead of this
front, N of 25N between 70W and 76W, and in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong SW wind are ahead of the front, N
of 25N and W of 70W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a broad high
pressure anchored by a 1026 mb high center located near 33N40W.
Another 1026 mb high pressure is over the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa is
resulting in fresh to strong N winds between the Madeira and the
Canary Islands, including the regional waters of southern Morocco.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within this area of winds. Fresh N winds
and seas of 5 to 6 ft are seen between the the Cabo Verde Islands.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft seas dominate the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move
SE through Mon, when it will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas
line. The front will then dissipate Tue. Fresh to locally strong
winds will prevail ahead of the front, N of 26N and W of 65W
today. Late tonight, winds behind the front, N of 28N, will
increase to strong, aided by strengthening low pressure off the
North Carolina coast. This low will bring strong N winds and
higher seas across the far NW area into late week.

$$
Konarik
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