[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season appears to move off the W
coast of Africa. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong convection
are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The
Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward propagation of this
convective activity. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward
over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S of the Cabo Verde Islands.
A tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface
map.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N19W to 01N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between
12W and 17W, and from 00N to 04N between 30W and 50W. Similar
convection is S of 01N between 17W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward across N Florida, and the
Florida panhandle. A band of showers and thunderstorms persist
ahead of the front and now is affecting South Florida and parts of
the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh W winds are noted over the NE Gulf
and S of the front. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the
Gulf waters providing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow throughout.
Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range. An altimeter pass over
the western Gulf indicates these wave heights. Once again, a surface
trough is analyzed over the Yucatan peninsula. This trough
usually develops over the Yucatan peninsula during the evening
hours, shifts westward into the SW Gulf each night, and dissipates
over the SW Gulf each morning.

For the forecast, the weak ridge now in place will be reinforcing
by the high pressure that follows the above mentioned front. This
system will shift east, allowing for fresh SW winds to developing
in the western Gulf early this week. Fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds will occur within about 90 nm of the N and W coasts of
the Yucatan peninsula mainly during the evening hours Mon through
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridge stretches from the Atlantic to the far NW Caribbean.
This system combined with the Colombia low supports moderate to
fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, particularly
between the ABC Islands and the Guajira peninsula in northern
Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent scatterometer
pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft
range. A few thunderstorms are still noted over parts of eastern
Cuba and Hispaniola. The majority of this activity developed due
to afternoon heating, sea breezes and local terrain effects.
Strong upper-level westerly winds are advecting multilayer clouds,
with possible showers, across the southern Caribbean into the
Atlantic. Convection has flared-up over most of Honduras and
southern Guatemala, where a diffluence pattern aloft is noted.
Similar convective activity is observed over northern Colombia.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon. Then a weakening
cold front moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over the
NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon evening, while moderate
to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to just S of Jacksonville, FL. A
wide band of showers and thunderstorms remains ahead of the front
and extends from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and South Florida.
An ASCAT data pass provided observations of fresh to strong
southwest winds ahead of the front, and mainly fresh NW winds
behind it. Seas in the area are 6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a broad high
pressure anchored by a 1027 mb high center located near 33N41W.
Another 1026 mb high pressure is over the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa is
resulting in fresh to strong N winds between the Madeira and the
Canary Islands, including the regional waters of southern Morocco.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within this area of winds. Fresh N winds
and seas of 5 to 6 ft are seen between the the Cabo Verde Islands.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft seas dominate the
remainder of the basin.

In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low located near 28N52W is
generating a large area of broken to overcast multilayer clouds
with possible patches of rain and some shower activity.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move
SE through Mon, when it will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas
line. The front will then dissipate into mid- week. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of
65W through Sun. By Sun night, winds behind the front, N of 28N,
will increase to strong, aided by strengthening low pressure off
the North Carolina coast. This low will strong N winds and higher
seas across the far NW area through mid-week.

$$
GR
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