[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080241
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season appears to move off the W
coast of Africa. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong convection
are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The
Hovmoller diagram cleary shows the westward propagation of this
convective activity. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward
over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S of the Cabo Verde
Islands. A tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC
analysis/surface map.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 02N30W to 01N40W and to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01S to 03N
between 14W-22W, and from 02N to 04N between 07W-14W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between
34W-38W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-38W and
also between 41W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from just north of Tampa, Florida
northwestward to southeastern Louisiana near 29N89W where it
transitions to a warm front and continues northwestward to
inland central and western Louisiana. Pre-frontal scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen within about 150 nm south of
the front east of 86W to inland central Florida. Gentle to
moderate west to northwest winds are north of the front, except
for higher winds of fresh speeds north of 29N. Seas north of
the front are in the 3-4 ft range, except for higher seas of
4-6 ft north of 29N. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is in place
providing for light to gentle anticyclonic flow throughout. Seas
elsewhere are low, in the 2-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will is expected
to be east of the Gulf by Mon, followed by high pressure
building southward from the southeastern U.S. This will bring
moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through
midweek next week. Winds just north of the Yucatan and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche are expected to pulse between fresh and
strong during the night, from Mon night through Wed night, then
mainly fresh Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure ridging stretches from the Atlantic to the
far north-central Caribbean and to the northwestern Caribbean
and the Yucatan Channel area. The associated gradient is
providing for mainly gentle to moderate trades across the basin,
except for fresh trades south of 15N between 68W-72W and light
and variable winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Seas are in
the 3-6 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-4 ft in the north-
central and northwest sections of the sea.

The Caribbean is absent of deep convection as atmospheric conditions
remain rather tranquil and stable. The only exceptions noted are
in the extreme northeast part of the sea, where a large patch of
low-level moisture associated to a surface trough that extends
from Guadeloupe to near 13N65W is moving westward to the north of
15N and east of 65W. This moisture patch is characterized by
broken to overcast low-level clouds with isolated to possibly
scattered showers as noted in recent surface observations from
the Leeward Islands. Isolated showers are possible south of 15N
and east of 70W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain
moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon.
A weakening cold front moving across the Bahamas should allow
winds over the northwest part of the sea to become gentle to
moderate by Mon evening, while moderate to fresh trades will
continue for the central and eastern basin through Thu night.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist near the Leeward Islands
through Sun night. Larger trade-wind swell from the central
Atlantic should approach the Lesser Antilles near mid-week
next week, and spread into the eastern part of the sea by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to
inland central Florida near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal squall
line is analyzed from 31N75W to 28N79W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring along the squall line.
An ASCAT data pass from this afternoon indicated fresh to strong
southwest winds ahead of the cold front, and mainly fresh west
winds behind it. Seas in the area are 6-9 ft primarily due to
a west swell. Conditions improve south and east of the front,
with moderate or lighter winds south of 25N and east of 65W.

In the central Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from
near 22N50W to 15N55W. This trough is related to an upper-level
low that is identified on water vapor to be near 21N52W. Broken
to overcast multilayer clouds are noted east of the low to 44W,
also from 21N to 27N between 42W-48W and from 15N to 19N between
42W-55W. Patches of rain along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible within these areas of clouds. Isolated
showers are seen from 10N to 19N between 55W and the Windward
Islands.

In the eastern Atlantic, broad high pressure anchored by a 1025
mb high center that is north of the area near 32N40W, controls
the weather pattern over that part of the Atlantic. The
associated gradient is allowing for fresh northeast winds
to exist near the Cabo Verde Islands and to the north of the
Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas
dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will prolong fresh to
strong southwest to west winds off the Florida coast, just north
of the Bahamas through tonight. The front will slowly move
eastward reaching from 31N73W to South Florida Sun, and from
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas on Mon. This will cause the
fresh to strong winds to shift eastward into the west central
Atlantic waters. A cut-off low is going to intensify off the
Carolina coast Mon night through Wed, which should bring fresh to
strong northerly winds and rough seas off the Georgia/Florida
coast.

$$
GR
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