[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081633
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season has emerged off the W coast
of Africa this morning. It is currently located along 14W S of
10N this morning, moving W at 10 kts. Numerous scattered to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 08N between the
coast of Africa and 22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving
westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing well S of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 00N to 04N west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary boundary extends from north central Florida to
the Mississippi River Delta, though convection is limited
throughout the basin. North of the front, gentle to moderate W to
NW winds prevail, with light to gentle winds south of the front in
the eastern Gulf. In the western Gulf, moderate SE flow dominates.
Seas are generally 1-3 ft, with buoys along the Texas coast and NW
Gulf reporting 4 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later this
afternoon. In its wake, high pressure will build in from the
north, bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of
the Gulf from Mon night through Wed night. These winds will pulse
to strong during nighttime off the central Florida coast on Mon
night, and over the eastern Bay of Campeche from Mon night thru
Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong
hazy conditions across the central W and SW Gulf through early
this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure ridging over the northern
Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin is
maintaining moderate trade winds across the majority of the basin.
Fresh easterlies are noted in the south-central basin with fresh
southeasterlies off the coast of Honduras. Gentle winds persist in
the far SW portion of the basin, including the entrance to the Panama
Canal. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 4-6 likely in the south-
central Caribbean.

For the forecast, The surface ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon. Then a robust
surface trough moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over
the NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon night, while
moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern
basin into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An 1000 mb cut-off low pressure system offshore Cape Hatteras is
creating a disturbed weather pattern in the western Atlantic. A
robust surface trough stretches southwestward from this low. Weather
satellites reveal a large area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 23N-31N between 65W-80W. West of 75W, winds
are gentle to moderate from the west. Between 55W-75W, winds are
moderate to fresh from the south, with an area of strong SW winds
near 30N70W. Seas are generally 4-6 ft with an area of 6-8 ft
north of 27N between 60W-75W. As this cut-off low lingers in the
western Atlantic for the next several days, NE swell will
propagate into the area. Caution should be exercised in the
vicinity of the Gulf Stream this week as the swell opposes the
current, creating choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions.
Farther east the Azores high dominates the pattern, with mainly
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. The pressure gradient
increases in the NE Atlantic, generating an area of fresh NE winds
near the Canary Islands and 6-8 ft seas from 27N-31N between 12W-
28W.

For the forecast W of 55W, The trough will slowly drift eastward
to over the Central/SE Bahamas through Mon, it should allow the
fresh to strong winds to shift north of 31N late tonight.
Afterward, the strengthening cut-off low will bring strong N winds
and higher seas off the Georgia-northern Florida coast through
Thu.

$$
Flynn
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