[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N14W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to the
Equator along 21W, to 02S30W 02S38W, to the Equator along 40W,
and to 01S45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 06N southward from 30W westward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from
50W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 27N to the north of the Bahamas
in the Atlantic Ocean, to NE Florida, and along 30N into eastern
Texas. An Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high pressure center is about
150 nm to the south of Bermuda.

Moderate to fresh winds span the Gulf of Mexico. The
comparatively fastest wind speeds are in the coastal waters of
the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The wave heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SE Gulf of Mexico, and from
88W westward. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet
elsewhere. It is possible that a few areas of haze and smoke may
be in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mostly to
agricultural fires that are in southern Mexico.

High pressure near Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across the
Gulf waters through Thu, except gentle to moderate in the
eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse
nightly in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula through Thu. The high pressure will retreat eastward
late this week into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold
front, allowing winds to diminish.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along
26N68W, across the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba, through the waters of
NW Jamaica, to 17N81W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward, in NE
Nicaragua, and in E Honduras.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is
along 09N/10N from 74W at the coast of Colombia westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
coastal waters, and possibly in the coastal plains, from
Colombia to SE Nicaragua.

Other rainshowers are possible, during the rest of the
afternoon, in areas of low level moisture, with afternoon
heating.

Fresh to strong trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5
feet to 9 feet, were covering the central Caribbean Sea waters
from the Greater Antilles southward between 70W and 82W, during
the early morning hours of today. Moderate to fresh winds, and
wave heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere.

High pressure near Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong winds
across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri.
Pulsing nightly fresh to locally strong trades also will affect
the waters just north of the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough
extending across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba will meander
over the next few days, supporting isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. More tranquil
marine conditions are expected across the basin by the end of
the week into the weekend. A moderate easterly swell in the
tropical N Atlantic will gradually subside through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along
26N68W, across the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba, through the waters of
NW Jamaica, to 17N81W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the surface trough, northwestward,
spreading across the Bahamas and the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A second surface trough is along 56W/57W from 21N to 25N.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 26N to 28N between 52W and 57W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate to locally
strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 42W
and 65W.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is about 150 nm to the south of
Bermuda, near 30N64W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the north, and away from the two surface
troughs.

A cold front passes through 33N40W to 31N43W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N
northward from the cold front eastward.

Fresh NE winds are from 14N northward from 30W eastward, and
from 20N southward from 34W westward. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 55W westward.
The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 02N to 15N
between 40W and 60W. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 9
feet from 20N northward from 30W eastward. The wave heights
range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean.

A surface trough extending across the SE Bahamas and eastern
Cuba will meander over the next few days, supporting isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. The
subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda will maintain its
influence across the remainder of the area through Thu. Fresh to
locally strong trades are likely offshore northern Hispaniola
pulsing nightly through Thu. The high pressure will weaken and
migrate eastward late this week and weekend as a cold front
exits the eastern United States.

$$
mt
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