[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N17W to 02N30W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from south of 08N and between 35W and NE
South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southwestward
into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin,
except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft
are prevalent across the Gulf waters, except for 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf. A few areas of haze and smoke may be in place across the
far southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across
the Gulf waters through Thu. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
to pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula through Thu. The high pressure will retreat
eastward late this week ahead of an approaching cold front,
allowing winds to diminish.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening surface trough extends from the W Atlantic, across the
SE Bahamas, eastern Cuba and into the central Caribbean. Isolated
showers are noted between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and
offshore NE Nicaragua. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail
elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades are affecting the central and
eastern Caribbean, while moderate to locally fresh winds are noted
in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central and
eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring offshore
northern Colombia. Seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the rest of the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure near Bermuda will maintain fresh to
strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri. Fresh to locally
strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing
nightly through Fri. The aforementioned surface trough will
meander over the next few days, supporting isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic basin, permitting
fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from
26N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba and there are some
isolated showers near the trough, especially near the Turks and
Caicos. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are prevalent W of
55W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Farther east, a cold front drops
into the central Atlantic, extending from 31N44W to 29N47W,
continuing southward as a surface trough to 17N52W. No deep
convection is associated with these features. Moderate to fresh
trades are present south of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles. Seas are 5-8 ft in the area described.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are found in the far NE Atlantic,
mainly north of 20N and E of 30W, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore Western Sahara. Seas in the region are 5-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending across
the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba will meander over the next few
days, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly
across the Bahamas. The subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda
will maintain its influence across the remainder of the area
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trades are likely offshore
northern Hispaniola pulsing nightly through Thu. The high pressure
will weaken and migrate eastward late this weekend and weekend as
a cold front exits the eastern United States. For the waters
between 35W and 55W, low pressure may form near 27N45W through mid
week, supporting fresh to strong winds within 90 nm on the
northwest side of the low pressure.

$$
Delgado
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