[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N14W to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the the ITCZ and continues to below the
equator at 21W and to 02S26W to 02S33W and to the equator at
40W and to near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-26W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 26W-34W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 36W-41W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-45W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
northwest of the ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 42W-47W, and
from 02N to 06N between 47W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from near Bermuda west-
southwestward along 30N to near 93W. The gradient between the
high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the western Gulf
and Mexico is allowing for moderate east to southeast winds over
just about the entire basin, except for fresh east winds south
of 24N between 87W-91W and in over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Light southeast to south winds are over the north-central and
northeast Gulf sections per latest ASCAT data. Wave heights
are in the range of 3-6 ft, except for lower wave heights of
2-4 ft over the north-central, northeast and southeast sections
of the Gulf.

It is possible that a few areas of haze and smoke may be over
some areas of the central and western Gulf due mostly to
agricultural fires that are in southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will
continue across the Gulf waters through Thu, except for gentle
to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds
are forecast to pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu evening. The high
pressure will retreat eastward late this week into the weekend
ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing for winds to
diminish. High pressure will rebuild over the basin by the end of
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean northeast of
the southeastern Bahamas near 26N70W, southwestward to eastern
Cuba and to just west of Jamaica and to 17N80W. The corresponding
upper-level broad trough extends from the central Atlantic Ocean
southwestward to a base near 13N and between 65W-80W. No
significant convection is noted with the surface trough, however
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen to the west
of the upper trough from 15N to 18N west of 82W to inland
Honduras and Nicaragua where the activity becomes numerous
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar activity has
recently developed over northern and central Costa Rica.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
extends roughly along 10N to inland Colombia near 75W. Isolated
showers are possible along and near the trough.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the
interior portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and over a few sections
of the interior of western Puerto Rico. Patches of low-level
moisture, with possible isolated showers are seen over the
eastern and central Caribbean from 13N to 15N east of about
73W.

ASCAT data from this afternoon highlighted fresh to strong
trades over the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades
elsewhere. Wave heights are in the range of 7-10 ft from 11N to
15N between 72W-80W to 4-7 ft elsewhere except for lower wave
heights of 2-4 ft north of 18N west of 85W and 3-5 ft in the Gulf
of Honduras and from 18N to 20N between 80W-85W. Wave heights of
6-9 ft due to an east to southeast swell are present from 15N to
18N between 72W-80W.

For the forecast, high pressure near Bermuda will maintain fresh
to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean through
Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to locally strong trades will also
affect the waters just north of the Gulf of Honduras. A surface
trough extending from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba
and to near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras will meander
over the next few days, supporting isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity near it. More tranquil marine conditions
are expected across the basin by the end of the week into the
weekend. A moderate easterly swell in the tropical N Atlantic
will gradually subside through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic surface trough extends from near 26N70W,
southwestward to eastern Cuba and to the Caribbean Sea near
Jamaica. Its corresponding upper-level rather broad trough
extends from near 31N60W, southwestward to 26N69W and continues
to the central Caribbean Sea. Small patches of low-level
moisture moving westward, with possible isolated showers are
noted from 22N to 27N between 65W and 74W, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 24N to 29N west of
74W to across South Florida. This activity is being enhanced by
a shortwave trough that is between the Bahamas and Florida.

A central Atlantic surface trough is along 56W from 21N to 29N.
An area of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms is quickly shifting
eastward over the waters from 24N to 31N and between 46W-57W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N to 22N
between 43W-53W.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is about 150 nm to the south of
Bermuda near 30N63W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
remainder of the Atlantic outside the two troughs and areas
of precipitation.

Fresh northeast winds are north of 14N and east of 30W, and
also south of 20N west of 30W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
wind flow north of 20N west of 55W. The wave heights range from
7-9 ft from 02N to 15N between 40W-60W. The wave heights range
from 6-9 ft north of 20N and east of 30W. The wave heights range
from 4-7 ft over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from the
southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba will meander over the next
few days, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
near it. Another surface trough from 26N55W to 22N59W will drift
southward through the week, with fresh to locally strong winds
just west of it until it weakens late Wed. Otherwise, the
subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda will maintain its
influence across the remainder of the area through the end of the
week. Fresh to locally strong trades offshore northern
Hispaniola will pulse nightly through Thu. The high pressure will
weaken and migrate eastward late this week and weekend as a cold
front exits the southeastern United States.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net