[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain possible over Hispaniola through Mon: An upper trough
reaches from just west of Bermuda through central Cuba into the
northwest Caribbean. An associated surface trough reaches from
22N65W through central Hispaniola. Deep layer moisture continues
to concentrate along and east of the surface trough. Latest
satellite imagery shows the heaviest convection over the central
Caribbean, although back building showers farther north are
starting to impact the eastern tip of Jamaica. This pattern will
support showers and thunderstorms across the Dominican Republic
and possibly Puerto Rico through early Mon. Conditions may
gradually improve starting late Mon into mid week as the upper
trough dampens out and shifts eastward, decoupling with the lower
level trough which will move more to the northwest. Please consult
products issued by your local or national meteorological service
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa at the
Guinea- Bissau/Senegal border area near 12N16W to 08N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 02N30W to 02N40W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 15W
and 25W, and from 02N to 04N between 30W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure ridging prevails across the northern, with
lower pressure over north-central Mexico. The usual, nightly
trough has formed over the western Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern
is supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, as observed in a 04 UTC scatterometer satellite
pass, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf
with 3 to 5 ft seas west of 90W. Light and variable winds persist
over the northeast Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E
winds are noted in a 02 UTC scatterometer satellite pass, except
for winds to 25 kt along the north-central coast of Cuba. Smoke
and haze persist across portions of the western Gulf due to mostly
agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow through
Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set-up
across the NW and W-central Gulf primarily tonight into Mon
morning. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore
waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through
midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain across Hispaniola through early Mon.

An upper trough extends across the northwest Caribbean, with a
surface trough extending from 22N65W across Hispaniola. The
combination of upper divergence on the southeast side of the upper
trough and trade wind convergence in the lower levels is
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across much of
the central Caribbean between Jamaica and Colombia. Drier and more
stable air west of the trough is maintaining mostly fair
conditions across the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds
are evident over much of the eastern and central Caribbean south
of high pressure near Bermuda, and these winds are supporting 5 to
8 ft seas. Mostly moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
sustain fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central
Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia tonight through Thu. Fresh to strong trades will also
affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through late this week. A
surface trough near Hispaniola and divergence aloft will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves northwestward,
reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure is centered southwest of Bermuda near
29N65W. A ridge extends from the high pressure through northeast
Florida. A surface trough reaches from 22N65W through central
Hispaniola. North of that, the tail end of a weak cold front
reaches from 31N55W to 29N60W. This pattern is supporting mostly
moderate easterly flow south of 25N west of 55W with 4 to 6 ft
seas over open waters, with gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north
of 25N west of 55W. Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure centered
over the Azores is maintaining gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6
ft seas between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8
ft seas are noted over the far eastern Atlantic off the African
coast.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently near
Hispaniola will drift northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos
Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon. This trough will continue to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. High
pressure will dominate the remainder of the forecast region
through at least midweek while weakening some.

$$
Christensen
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