[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W
to 02N30W to 02N40W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed S of 07N and between the coast of
Africa to 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high
pressure and lower pressures over northern Mexico sustains fresh
southerly winds W of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
seen in the SE Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. Seas in
the region are 3-6 ft. Light and variable winds persist over the
northeast Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas. Smoke and haze persist across
portions of the western Gulf due to mostly agricultural fires over
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will
persist across the region through Wed night due to a high pressure
system over the western Atlantic. The fresh to strong southerly
over the western and NW Gulf will diminish by this afternoon.
Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore waters
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through at least
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the 23N65W through the eastern
Bahamas, Haiti and into the central Caribbean near 13N78W.
Scattered showers are affecting the entrance of the Windward
Passage, eastern Cuba and NW Haiti. The divergence aloft is being
provided by an upper level trough that continues to dig into the
NW Caribbean and slowly progresses eastward. Dry air associated
with the upper level trough maintains fairly tranquil weather
conditions in the NW Caribbean. The influence of the surface
trough is diminishing across the Dominican Republic and Puerto
Rico as it continues to move away. However, diurnal heating and
the current moist profile may allow for a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop later today, causing localized
flash flooding. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also present in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 14N and between 72W
and 82W, likely in association with the east Pacific monsoon
trough that enters the basin through the Costa Rica and Panama
border. Fresh to strong trades are prevalent over much of the
eastern and central Caribbean, south of a high pressure system
positioned near Bermuda. These winds are supporting 5-9 ft seas.
Mostly moderate NE to E winds and 2-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will maintain fresh to
strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean
through most of the week. The strongest winds will affect the
waters offshore NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing
nightly Tue through late this week. The surface trough will
continue moving today to the northwest, enhancing storm activity
across the E Bahamas, E Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from 23N65W
to Haiti and into the central Caribbean. It is producing scattered
showers S of 24N and between 65W and 75W, affecting the SE
Bahamas, E Cuba and NW Haiti. In the north-central Atlantic, a
stationary front enters the basin near 31N48W and continues to
29N51W, where it transitions into a trough to 23N57W. No deep
convection is associated with these features. Moderate to fresh
easterly flow is present S of 28N and between 56W and the Bahamas.
This is supported by a subtropical ridge positioned near Bermuda.
Seas W of 60W are 4-7 ft.

Moderate to fresh trades are noted S of 20N and between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Farther east,
fresh to strong N-NE winds are found N of 20N and E of 30W,
sustained by a subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower
pressures over northern Africa. Seas in this area are also 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue
moving today to the northwest, enhancing storm activity across
the eastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. High
pressure will dominate the remainder of the forecast region
through midweek, before a cold front exiting the eastern United
States pushes the subtropical ridge eastward, weakening it in the
process.

$$
DELGADO
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