[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012231
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain possible over Hispaniola: A surface trough extends
from 23N65W across Hispaniola to 18N74W. Scattered moderate
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over portions of
Hispaniola. Periods of heavy rainfall are still possible across
portions of Hispaniola through this evening, with the threat
diminishing overnight. The rains may produce localized flooding
across portions of Hispaniola through this evening. Please
consult products issued by your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 03N27W to 02N40W to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N between
08W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure ridging prevails across the basin. This
pattern is supporting light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except for fresh near the
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will
briefly set-up across the NW and W-central Gulf tonight and Mon.
Otherwise, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow through Wed
night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain across Hispaniola through this evening.

A surface trough extends from 23N65W across Hispaniola to 18N74W.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 14N-
18N between 67W-76W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 11N-18N between 65W-83W. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is occurring inland over Panama. Fresh to
strong winds prevail over the southeastern and central Caribbean
in between the coasts of Venezuela and Hispaniola. Mainly moderate
trades prevail west of 75W and for the NE Caribbean. Seas are in
the 5-8 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5
ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central
Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia tonight through Thu. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras from late Tue through the end of the week. The
surface trough currently moving across Hispaniola will drift
northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern
Cuba on Mon. This trough will continue to produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N50W to 24N63W. A
surface trough extends from 23N65W across Hispaniola to 18N74W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 420 nm east of the
front, and within 330 nm SE of the trough. Gentle winds are to the
east of the front and trough, to the north and northeast of Puerto
Rico. Fresh E winds are noted to the NW of the trough and front,
mainly south of 26N. A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N67W
is leading to light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 27N for
the western half of the Atlantic. Seas are 5-6 ft east of the
Bahamas, and 3-5 ft farther north, to the east of N Florida. Seas
of 6-8 ft prevail north of 28N between 50W-65W.

Farther east, a 1031 mb high pressure centered over the Azores
extends surface riding southwestward to near 25N51W, with mainly
gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas near the ridge. Fresh NE to E trades
are noted over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ to 20N and
east of 55W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Fresh NE winds prevail over
the far eastern Atlantic, locally strong near the Canary Islands
and the coast of Western Sahara, where seas are 5-7 ft. Strong to
near gale force N to NE winds are forecast to pulse in between the
Canary Islands, as well as off the coasts of Morocco and Western
Sahara, through Tue night.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently moving
across Hispaniola will drift northwestward reaching the Turks and
Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon, producing scattered
showers and isolated tstorms across the area. High pressure will
dominate the remainder of the forecast region through at least
midweek while weakening some.

$$
Hagen
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