[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain possible over Hispaniola: A surface trough extends
from 22N59W across the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall is noted
just to the south of Hispaniola extending across portions of the
Dominican Republic. While the threat for heavy rainfall has
diminished east of Hispaniola, periods of heavy rainfall are
possible over portions of Hispaniola through tonight as the
trough drifts northwestward. The rains may produce flash flooding
and mudslides across portions of Hispaniola, particularly in
mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local
or national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to
08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 00S47W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 06N between 06W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is evident off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere. This pattern
is supporting light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the
western Gulf and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across
the NW Gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain across Hispaniola through tonight.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds, locally strong, prevail over the eastern
Caribbean. Moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central
Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia tonight through Thu. A surface trough extending from
Dominican Republic across the Atlantic waters to near 22N59W will
drift northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and
eastern Cuba on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced
favorable upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of
heavy rainfall across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N50W to 25N62W. A
surface trough extends from 22N59W to 17.5N70.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm
east of the front, and within 180 nm of the trough. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the front and trough. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the discussion
waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters north of 28N
between 52W and 63W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the waters north of
20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough extending from
Dominican Republic across the Atlantic waters to near 22N59W will
drift northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and
eastern Cuba on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced
favorable upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of
heavy rainfall across the area.

$$
AL
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